Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 76. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 73 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 74 to 79. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated snow showers in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. West winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. West winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 73 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 57 to 62. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 64 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 60 to 80. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 51 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 59 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weak cold front will continue to make its way down the island chain before dissipating near the Big Island later today. A band of moisture riding ahead of the front has increase showers across the central islands. Some moisture may linger near the eastern end of the state through Friday, but otherwise, moderate to locally breezy northeasterly winds will usher in cooler and drier weather through the weekend.

Discussion

Latest sounding data from Lihue shows an inversion has set up over Kauai around 7 kft and precipitable water values have dropped about half of an inch since the Tuesday 00Z sounding. The Hilo sounding shows an elevated inversion around 12 kft and about a tenth of an inch in precipitable water drop than the 00Z Tuesday sounding. This along with the infrared and CIMSS satellite precipitable water imagery confirms the front has moved through Kauai and is weakening between Oahu and Maui County. Radar imagery continues to show scattered showers over Maui County. Rainfall rates appear to have become more light to moderate in nature as the upper and mid level trough has weakened and moved east of the state. Weak northerly winds appear to be bleeding out ahead of the main frontal band allowing for hybrid northerly winds converging with overnight land breezes, especially over Maui County. Moisture will linger around Maui County and the Big Island today into Friday, producing occasional showers that will generally favor windward and mauka locations.
Moderate to locally breezy northerly flow will continue to fill in across the islands from west to east over the next few days bringing drier and slightly cooler temperatures. Dewpoints will reach in the mid to upper 50's for the smaller islands while Big Island coastal area will reach in the low 60's over the weekend. Max high temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's.
Forecast is on track with mid and upper level ridging building north of the islands today and Friday, increasing stability as a weak surface high builds north of the state. Northeast winds will become moderate Friday through the weekend as they shift more easterly. Expect a return to a drier trade wind pattern this weekend, with a series of progressive low pressure systems and fronts moving eastward well north of the main Hawaiian Islands into next week.

Aviation

Periods of showers and MVFR conditions will continue today as a weak cold front moves through the Hawaiian Islands. Light northerly winds will blow across the region. Clouds and showers will favor northern and western sections of each island.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2,000 feet for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui. This AIRMET will likely decrease in coverage later this morning.

Marine

A weakening cold front will push down the island chain today and tonight, with moderate to fresh northerly winds developing across the waters. Winds will shift northeast at moderate to fresh levels Friday as a weak high builds northwest of the state. Winds will ease into the light to moderate range and shift to a more typical east-northeasterly trade wind direction over the weekend into early next week as the weak high passes by to the north of the state. Winds are expected to remain mostly below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds through early next week. SCA level seas will impact portions of the marine area as a large northwest swell moves through today through Friday night.
Long period forerunners from an incoming large northwest swell have reached the smaller islands early this morning, while buoys 51001 and 51101 northwest of Kauai have risen quite a bit overnight. This swell will rapidly build from northwest to southeast down the island chain this morning, bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through Friday. Surf may reach advisory levels along the west facing shores of the Big Island late tonight through Friday night as well. This large swell will decline Friday night and Saturday. A reinforcing northwest swell should arrive Saturday night, keeping some moderate sized surf in place along north and west facing shores through early next week. Another long period northwest swell reinforcement may push surf up to advisory levels Wednesday.
South shore surf will remain small through Saturday. A south swell arriving Sunday should produce a slight increase in the surf that is expected to persist through Monday. East shore surf will trend down during the next couple days, then remain well below normal through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov