Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Very windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 59 to 72. East winds up to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 46 to 55. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 59 to 72. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 74 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong trade winds will persist into early next week, bringing brief showers to windward and mauka areas. There's a potential for increased windward shower coverage tonight through Friday due to an approaching weak upper disturbance from the east.

Discussion

The surface ridge is expected to strengthen gradually over the next few days, typically strengthening the trade winds locally. However, an approaching mid- to upper-level trough could temporarily weaken these winds later today through Friday. Prior to this, there remains the possibility of a short-fused wind advisory for lower elevations in the typical windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island through the day. Strong northeast winds at the Big Island Summits are holding early this morning due to a tight pressure gradient aloft, but have begun to trend down. That trend will should continue as the upper trough moves through. This trough could also weaken the strong subsidence inversion, potentially increasing windward shower activity tonight through Friday, with some showers reaching the dry leeward areas of the smaller islands.
Guidance suggests seasonable trade wind conditions continuing this weekend through early next week, with the ridge remaining strong to the north. The strong trades could ease slightly later next week as the ridge weakens. Showers will favor the typical windward areas, with minimal accumulations expected.

Aviation

Windy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days, with passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Expect mainly VFR, with brief MVFR in showers/low clouds.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for most windward areas.
AIRMET Tango for low-level mountain lee turbulence will remain in effect for the next several days due to the strong trades. May also need AIRMET Tango for strong surface winds greater than 30 kt this afternoon.

Marine

Strong- to near gale-force east to northeast trades with seas up to the 10 ft advisory level will continue through early next week as the ridge holds strong to the north. The strong trades could ease slightly later next week as the ridge weakens.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through early next week due to the strong trades locally and upstream of the state. A downward trend is possible next week as the upstream fetch weakens and the local trades begin to ease around midweek.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping south-southwest swells move through. After a brief down trend today, a fresh south-southwest pulse arriving Friday will result in an upward trend going into the weekend. A more significant south swell will gradually fill in late Saturday night into Sunday, then likely reach the advisory level late Sunday through Monday. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday through midweek.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov