Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. North winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will slightly ease today through Saturday, then return to breezy levels Sunday through early next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, mostly overnight through the morning periods.

Discussion

Guidance shows the mid- to upper-level ridge in place weakening later today through Friday as a weak upper low settles north of Kauai and a mid-level trough approaches from the east. The surface ridge will respond by weakening, resulting in the trades easing to light to moderate levels. Upper-level height falls combined with increasing low-level moisture and a higher inversion could lead to better windward and mauka shower coverage, especially over the weekend as the mid-level trough moves through from east to west. Additionally, a few light showers can't be ruled out over dry leeward areas during the afternoons where localized sea breezes develop.
Trades will return to breezy levels by the end of the weekend, which should persist through early next week as surface high pressure builds north of the area.

Aviation

Trade winds will weaken slightly today, increasing the chance for localized sea breezes to develop. Clouds and showers will generally favor windward and mountain areas across the island chain, although sea breezes may allow clouds and showers to develop across a few leeward and interior areas this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with brief periods of MVFR possible in the overnight to early morning hours along windward areas.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of all island mountains, but may be cancelled later today as the trade winds weaken slightly.

Marine

A weakening surface ridge to the north of the state will ease the pressure gradient around the islands through the end of the week. Trade winds speed look to trend towards gentle to moderate speeds through the weekend. A potential slight increase of the trade winds may push it back to locally strong levels in the typical windy areas of Maui County and the Big Island by early next week. For now, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled and looks to remain that way through the weekend.
The fading south swell will keep surf from going flat today along south facing shores. A new small south- southwest swell is expected to build late tonight. The dominant wave period looks to be 14 to 16 seconds as it moves in, peaks late Friday, and holds through Saturday near the summertime average before slowly easing Sunday.
A few tiny pulses from the north-northwest are expected today and will likely keep the surf from going completely flat along north facing shores through the weekend. Short-period wind waves generated by the trade winds will gradually decline over the next several days as the trades ease. Small, long-period east swells from increased east Pacific tropical cyclone activity may arrive over the weekend, leading to a subtle increase in surf heights.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov