Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will prevail during the next 7 days, as high pressure meanders north of the island chain. Typical summertime trade wind weather will prevail, with bands of enhanced moisture periodically moving through. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers also reaching leeward communities at times.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1032 mb high is centered around 1450 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some of these showers reaching leeward areas. Main forecast focus remains on trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure will meander north of the state during the next 7 days, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing across the island chain with only minor variations in strength from day to day. As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather is expected to prevail, with bands of enhanced moisture periodically moving through the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward communities at times.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will remain in place through the next few days, delivering low clouds and brief showers to windward and mountain areas, producing isolated MVFR CIG. Most of the showers will be seen during the overnight and early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward areas statewide due to mountain obscuration from the clouds and showers. This airmet will likely be canceled by mid morning as conditions are expected to improve. Increased trade wind speeds could bring the potential for low- level turbulence downwind of the terrain today.

Marine

High pressure north-northeast of the state will drift southwest today into Monday producing moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island through early Tuesday. Winds may weaken slightly around the middle of the week as a weak low level trough moves over the state from the east. Otherwise, moderate to locally strong trades are expected to persist through much of next week as the high lingers north of the state.
Offshore and near shore buoys continue to show some energy moving through from the current small south swell (13-15 seconds). Can expect south facing shore surf to hold through the morning hours before gradually declining through Monday. The next small, long period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and peak Wednesday night into Thursday. This swell will produce small surf along south facing shores before declining through the rest of the week. A tiny pulse from the north northwest will fade today with nearly flat conditions returning Monday and Tuesday. Another small north- northwest pulse is possible Wednesday that could linger during the second half of the week, producing tiny surf along north facing shores. Near shore buoys are showing an uptick in 10-8 second period energy overnight. This uptick is partly due to trades increasing both upstream and locally and possibly from the pulses from former Tropical Cyclone Emilia. Choppy east shore surf can be expected through much of the week as trades persist.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov