Forecasters monitor cyclone development; weekend weather in Hawaiʻi is dependent on storm track

Winds are churning to the south and east of the Big Island with strengthening projected as they move into the Central Pacific and near the state.

A tropical storm behind that system revved up to hurricane status overnight and there’s another area of rough weather off the southwestern coast of Mexico that could get some energy behind it, too.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook at 2 a.m. this morning reported that showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawai‘i continues to become better organized.

“If these trends continue, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop later today while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,” according to the hurricane center’s report. “A weaker disturbance located just to its southwest is expected to merge with this system later today.”

There’s a 90% the storm system will develop into a tropical system within the next 2 days.

The storm is then expected to become more powerful and move into the Central Pacific tonight or Thursday on a trek near the islands late this weekend or early next week.

The hurricane center said while it remains too early to tell where and how bad any potential impacts from the possible tropical storm could be, now is the time to keep a close eye on developments.

“There is the possibility for strong winds and heavy rain in Hawai‘i. However, confidence in any potential impact is extremely low,” said the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in an email Tuesday afternoon. “Confidence will remain low at least until a tropical cyclone develops, at which point we will know the starting point for the forecast track and have a better idea of how far north it may go.”

Forecasters added there have been questions about the possibility of wildfires, adding that this situation will not be similar to Hurricane Dora last year which led to the devastating and deadly wildfires that destroyed historic Lahaina, Maui, killing more than 100 people.

Wildfires can still happen under humid conditions, so the chances for them to spark are not out of the question. But if hazardous conditions do develop, strong winds and heavy rain are more likely than wildfires.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center also noted that if the system does strengthen into a tropical storm, it’s name would depend on where it develops intensity.

If it becomes a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific, it will be named Hector. If it makes the transition in the Central Pacific, it will be given the name Hone.

Hurricane Gilma was 2,130 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 2,200 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona as of 5 a.m. today.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the Category 1 storm’s structure continues to improve, with an eyewall developing.

Gilma is moving just north of due west, but slower than earlier, at about 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.

During the next few days, a large subtropical ridge should steer it westward to west-northwestward. However, this ridge becomes positioned a little farther northwest with time as a subtle weakness north of the storm forms, resulting in a slower-than-typical forward motion for this part of the Eastern Pacific.

“With the improvement of Gilma’s inner core structure this morning, the hurricane may be poised to intensify more over the next day or two,” said the National Hurricane Center, which adds with the addition of reduced wind shear and war sea surface temperatures, the hurricane likely will strengthen to a Category 3 storm.

There are some models that show even more intensification.

After the next 2 days, however, sea surface temps begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is expected to start — less than previously thought, however, because of the track farther south over warmer waters.

Then there’s that third system way over there by Mexico that could become something more.

Forecasters said earlier today that environmental conditions are looking more conducive for development of another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of lower pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A tropical depression is likely to form from that chaos late this week or during the weekend as the system move west-northwest into the central portion of the Eastern Pacific, well offshore of Mexico.

It stands a pretty low chance of development in the next couple of days, at only 30%. But it’s chances increase to 70% during the next 7 days.