Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Numerous showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 44 to 55. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Numerous showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate northeast trades will weaken during the second half of the week in response to a couple fronts north of the islands disrupting the trade wind flow. A trough moving in from the east will increase clouds and showers Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Some stregthening of the trades is expected early next week.

Discussion

As expected, no significant changes to the forecast with the morning package.
A surface trough, with the southern end about 290 miles northeast of the Big Island overnight, will continue to slowly advance towards the islands over the next couple of days, even as it weakens. The trough will continue to disrupt the trade wind flow, and will bring some clouds and showers mainly to windward portions of the islands as early as tonight. The southern end of the trough is expected to reach the Big Island late today into tonight, while the northern portion of the trough will be slower to reach the smaller islands, and may dissipate before reaching the smaller islands. However even if the trough weakens, left over moisture will be carried in on the background flow to mostly impact the windward sides of the islands tonight on into Friday.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough digging southward towards the islands, in line with the latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic model runs. An upper level low is still expected to form to the west of the islands along the upper level trough later today. The upper level trough lingering over the islands could help to enhance the showers associated with the above mentioned surface trough, but overall its impact is expected to be minimal.
Even as the surface trough weakens Thursday and into the weekend, a couple of fronts passing north of the islands will maintain a light wind pattern over the islands. By Friday, an upper level ridge building over the islands will help to stabilize the airmass, helping to limit shower activity over the islands.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades expected through the rest of the week. SHRA and low cigs will bring brief MVFR conds to windward and mauka areas. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A surface high pressure cell remains stagnant today far northwest of the state. This feature will move little the next couple of days and help maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the local waters. Winds should stay below Small Craft Advisory. A cold front approaching from the west will break down the aforementioned surface high Friday through this weekend, weaken pressure gradients across the region, and ease trades to gentle to locally moderate.
This morning, a 4 to 5 foot, 13-second, north northwest (330-340 degree) swell could be noted on both the Hanalei and Waimea buoys. The swell will to be on a very slow decline today, but continue to produce small surf, especially along the best targeted reefs with northerly exposure. The next significant north northwesterly swell will likely arrive late Sunday into early next week may be large enough to push for surf a High Surf Advisory along north facing shores.
Nearshore buoys along the southern shores continue to show the presence of a 2 to 3 foot, 13-second, south southwest (180-190 degree) swell, which is slightly above forecast guidance. As this swell holds through tomorrow, expect small surf along south facing beaches. The next long period south swell is poised to arrive mid-day Thursday and will reinforce this ongoing background swell. Surf along west-facing shores will be influenced by a mixture of both north and south swells. Thus, expect western exposures to remain slightly elevated as well. East- facing shore chop over the next several days will be near normal, then steadily decline as wind waves subside through late week in response to lighter trade flow.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov