Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 75 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 61 to 71. North winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will continue today, then weaken tonight through the first half of next week. Conditions should remain fairly stable with passing low clouds and light showers. Rain chances increase mid to late next week as a front moves slowly across the islands.

Discussion

High pressure far north-northeast of the state will keep moderate trade winds across the islands today. Conditions early this morning remain fairly dry under stable flow with passing clouds and showers over mainly windward and mauka areas. This morning's 12Z soundings at Lihue and Hilo show the trade wind inversion around 5000 ft so most showers that develop should be light.
Winds look to gradually weaken tonight as a weak front approaches the state, then stalls and dissipates northwest of Kauai. Expect mostly dry and stable weather to continue through Saturday, with the highest chance of rain along windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours.
Lighter winds are then expected to develop across the state by Sunday and continue through early next week as the local pressure gradient across the islands weakens. This will allow for the development of localized daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes Sunday into Monday. Clouds and showers will generally focus over interior areas during the afternoons as the sea breezes develop.
A slightly stronger front looks to then approach the state towards the middle of next week. Will see a slight uptick in rain chances across the state as pre-frontal bands quickly move across the area Wednesday. Guidance continues to show this front reaching Kauai by Thursday then either stalling or slowly moving across the state and dissipating into Friday. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds look to return next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate trades will continue through the rest of today and weaken through the first half of next week. A band of moisture is riding in on the trades and may cause SHRA and low cigs along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds expected in SHRA but otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc abv 020 for windward Big Island and abv 025 for the rest the island chain. Conds should improve later this morning morning.

Marine

Trade wind speeds have weakened to gentle to locally fresh as a front approaches then stalls and weakens northwest of the coastal waters this weekend. Winds will shift out of the southeast by Sunday, but will weaken enough for localized daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes Sunday into Monday. Another front approaching from the northwest early next week will keep gentle south winds in place.
The NDBC offshore buoy 51101 showed a rapid rise in swell overnight, with swell height spiking like a hockey stick. This translates to a similarly sharp increase in surf along north and west facing shores today. A High Surf Warning (HSW) has been issued starting this morning as this large to extra-large northwest swell (310-320 deg) will fill in today and peak this evening. Expect the potential for periodic overtopping of vulnerable coastal roadways, wave runup to coastal properties especially around high tide early Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for seas 10 feet or greater over majority of the coastal waters has also been issued starting this morning and expected to hold through Saturday.
Due to the westerly component of this swell a High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for west- facing shores of the Big Island starting at noon through Saturday. A gradual downward trend will follow over the weekend, with surf potentially dipping below the advisory levels by the end of the weekend. Into the extended forecast, a stretch of elevated surf is expected with overlapping northwest pulses ranging from large to potentially extra-large surf.
Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated through the weekend due to the lingering short-period north-northeast swell. Early next week east facing shores look to remain small.
Surf along south facing shores will see an uptick today through the first week of December from the southwest in a series of consecutive pulses, ranging from small to moderate surf with the peak days looking to be next week Monday and Tuesday.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions not expected through early next week as winds remain below warning thresholds. Daytime relative humidity may briefly touch critical levels over drier leeward areas into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until noon HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to noon HST Saturday for Kona, Kohala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov