Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds 20 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Windy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Clear and windy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and windy. Highs 72 to 79. East winds 15 to 30 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 74. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will steadily strengthen to become breezy to strong by tomorrow, with clouds and passing showers typically favoring windward areas. Wind speeds will then gradually decline into the moderate to locally breezy range into next weekend. An upper level low will develop and pass just south of the Big Island and may enhance rainfall coverage over the eastern half of the state, mainly around Thursday night into Friday. Then trades will weaken heading into next week with drier conditions expected.

Discussion

Latest radar and satellite imagery show limited low clouds and light showers moving into windward areas on the moderate to breezy trades early this morning, with a few showers passing over island terrain into leeward areas.
As high pressure builds to our north, winds will steadily increase into the breezy to strong range tonight through Thursday. Latest surface observations and model guidance suggest that the typically windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island will see Wind Advisory conditions beginning later this morning, so one has been issued and is in effect from 10 AM HST today through 6 PM HST tomorrow. The Wind Advisory for the Big Island summits has also been extended through 6 PM HST tomorrow and may even need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning for tomorrow. In addition, these stronger winds across the state could also begin to present some fire weather concerns. See the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details.
Fairly dry and stable conditions with passing trade wind showers will persist for the first half of the week before a combination of upper level dynamics and low level moisture edging up from the tropics begin to increase the rain chances for windward areas across the eastern end of the state. Model guidance shows an upper level low pinching off from the main trough southeast of the island chain and then retrograding westward, potentially bringing increased instability that could help to enhance trade wind showers across the Big Island and Maui. At this time, it looks like the main instability and moisture should pass south of the state, but a slight shift northward could bring more enhanced showers. Stay tuned for more details.
Then heading into the weekend and early next week, trades winds will be on the decline as a series of fronts passing to our north weaken the surface ridge and drier air will filter across the region.

Aviation

Breezy trades should strengthen through Wednesday. A typical trade wind pattern will prevail during this time with low cigs and SHRA focused windward and mauka. MVFR conds can be expected in SHRA, otherwise VFR will prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for lee turb AOB 8kft.
AIRMET Sierra is not in effect but may be needed for mtn obsc due to an increase in SHRA coverage during the overnight and early morning hours though the end of the week.

Marine

Strong high pressure to the north and northeast of the Islands will continue to build and expand westward. Easterly trade winds will strengthen to fresh to locally strong by tomorrow afternoon then persist through Thursday and possibly beyond. Meanwhile, a pair of overlapping north- northwest swells will elevate seas to at least 10 feet across all coastal waters by this evening. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters will likely be extended through Thursday with the morning package.
Surf along north and west-facing shores is expected to peak late this afternoon or early evening then gradually decline to seasonal norms by Thursday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui through this evening.
Surf along south-facing shores will subside today. Seasonal conditions are expected to return tomorrow, with smaller southeast and south-southwest swells contributing to surf conditions
Surf along east-facing shores will rise through Thursday in response to the strong trade winds. Lower surf is expected for the weekend.

Fire weather

Trade winds will continue to strengthen over the next few days and begin to increase fire weather concerns, especially tomorrow and Thursday when the trades are expected to be at their strongest. Relative humidity (RH) levels should near critical thresholds over some of the windier leeward areas by tomorrow afternoon. Red Flag Warnings will be a possibility (Wednesday and Thursday) and the only limiting factor for us to issue a Fire Weather Watch at this time is the minimum humidities being borderline critical. We will watch the humidities today to give us a better idea of the potential for Red Flag Warnings tomorrow and Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov