Hawaiʻi chief economist: Maui’s labor market generally improving

Maui’s labor market is generally improving, although the county’s post wildfire disaster labor force and employed people have been declining, Chief State Economist Eugene Tian said Wednesday. In November, Maui County’s not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.8%, down from 6.8% in November 2023.

“It is true that the unemployment rate alone may not tell the full picture of the labor market,” Tian said. “When people stopped looking for jobs (after last year’s wildfires), they left the labor force. This may result in declining in unemployment rate, the truth might be people were discouraged and gave up looking for jobs or they moved out-of-island.”

A recent report by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization made this observation: “While declining unemployment can indicate an improving labor market, in this case it primarily reflects workers leaving the labor force. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the number of employed workers in Maui County has fallen by 200, while the labor force has declined considerably more, losing 2,700 potential workers over the same period.”

However, Tian had four indicators to bolster his view that Maui’s labor market is getting better:

1. Unemployment rate has been declining from 8.5% in September 2023 to 3.8% in November 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).
2. Number of people unemployed but still looking for jobs (unemployment) fell from 7,250 in September 2023 to 3,150 in November 2024.
3. Initial unemployment claims decreased from 4,449 in the third week of August to 136 during the second week of December. The average initial unemployment claims for Maui County were 144 per week in 2019 (a normal year before COVID); the December 2024 number is lower than the 2019 number.
4. Non-agriculture payroll job count increased by 3,500 in November 2024 from September 2023 (68,900 jobs in September 2023 and 72,400 jobs in November 2024).

Tian said the US Census Bureau released Hawaiʻi population estimates on Thursday, but only at the state level.

“The new estimates show that Hawaiʻi has stopped losing population since 2023 (increased 1,028), and increased population in 2024 (increased 4,759),” he said. “County-level data will be released in March 2025.  We should know how many people moved out of Maui due to the wildfires by then.”

Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the labor force and unemployment estimates in March 2025 as well, he said. Due to the increase in estimated population for 2024, the outmigration estimate for Maui might be adjusted downward when county population is released next March, he added.