Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 79. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 58 to 63. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 65 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 68. Northeast winds around 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 63 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Drier air filling in behind a weak front east of Big Island is creating a crisp, cooler morning with mainly clear to partially cloudy skies. Very pleasant weather today as light to gentle northerly winds slowly veer back to trades by tonight. A dry trade regime will persist the next couple of days with typical trade wind-like weather in place throughout the week. Light precipitation will focus on windward exposures and along mauka slopes. A weak trough passage north of the islands will slightly increase rain chances Tuesday.

Discussion

A dry and more stable air mass has filled in across the majority of the island chain behind the front that was associated with the storm low that introduced last Thursday's severe weather. This morning's Kauai sounding verifies this resident dry air mass under established west-northwest flow throughout the column. Lihue's 0.6 inch precipitable waters registers in the lower 10 percentile range for early February. Responding morning surface dew point temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 50s under gentle post-frontal northerlies. The state falls just northeast of upper ridging straddling 10N while, at the surface, weak high pressure advances in from the west. As lower level high pressure fills in the void left by the aforementioned northeast-exiting storm low, regional winds will veer back to trades later today. Limited sub-850 mb moisture trapped beneath a fairly stout 6k ft inversion will assist in producing thicker clouds and isolated light showers as a result of orographic lifting along north and northeastern- facing mauka slopes.
A couple of boundary passages Tuesday and late Thursday into Friday will increase rain shower chances from slight to moderate probabilities for many better exposed windward communities and at higher elevation. A weak and shallow frontal boundary and associated weak upper trough will pass north of the state Tuesday. This will provide a slight increase in windward clouds and shower activity within established trade flow. EC ensemble 90 percentile guidance data increases QPF on Tuesday a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch over all windward exposures and at elevation. Shortwave energy diving into a larger scale troughs far north northeast of the state from Tuesday through Thursday may lower heights far enough south to touch the islands. A surface reflection of a weak front may pass across to the north and briefly disrupt trade flow Thursday. Moisture depth may be too shallow for a front to do much with upon its passage. The majority of the EC ensemble members increase rain coverage from west-to- east primarily north of the islands Thursday while only a few GFS members want to play into this slightly more wet pattern. Either way, no significant weather is expected from this weak wind-disrupting boundary passage. High pressure west of the island chain will pass over Friday and, once northeast of the state, trade flow will return for the weekend. After this relatively drier week, a more wet pattern is beginning to take shape early next week. Deeper mid layer moisture pooling up over the state downstream of a more pronounced North Central Pacific trough does increase a higher regional QPF signal across more ensemble members beyond Day 8.

Aviation

A dry and stable airmass is settling in over the islands, and will limit clouds and showers into tomorrow. Northerly winds will veer to the northeast by Sunday, leaving gentle to moderate northeast trade winds around the islands.
No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected today.

Marine

Gentle to moderate north winds are expected to veer northeasterly and strengthen slightly today as a weak high pressure northwest of the state will slowly track eastward through the middle of the week. Trade winds look to remain just under Small Craft Advisory through the forecast period for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
A combo of a moderate to large medium period north-northeast swell and a small, medium period northwest swell will continue to produce moderate to large surf along north facing shores. The north swell will gradually fill in this evening, peak tonight and Monday before gradually declining through the middle of the week. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is possible during the peak of the swell for north facing shores. Another small to moderate northwest swell is also expected to fill Monday, and peak Tuesday before declining through the end of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small except for shorelines exposed to the north-northeast swell through the first half of the week. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny through the forecast period with mainly background energy.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov