Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 71. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 72. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 83. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 82. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Southwest winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 41 to 52. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 54 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 83. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Rather dry and stable weather will persist through Thursday, as winds gradually shift around to the south and strengthen. A few showers will remain possible along windward slopes and coasts at night and over island interiors each afternoon. Showers will slowly increase in coverage and intensity over the western islands Thursday night into Friday as a weakening front moves in from the west and stalls out near Kauai. A ridge building north of the state should bring a return to drier conditions and light to moderate trades Friday night and Saturday, although showery weather will develop across windward Big Island as some deeper moisture moves in from the east. A new front will strengthen south to southwest winds and bring unsettled weather, and potentially heavy showers, into the area Sunday through early next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered around 1350 miles east-northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending westward to a position around 125 miles north of Kauai. Light to moderate east-southeasterly trades prevail in unsheltered areas from Oahu to the Big Island, with land breezes present elsewhere. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the state, with a bit more cloud cover over windward Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few light showers affecting windward slopes and coasts. Main short term focus revolves around the incoming front at the end of the work week.
The ridge north of the islands will keep land and sea breezes dominant across much of the state through tonight, with light to moderate east-southeasterly trades holding on in the unsheltered sections over the eastern islands. Winds will pick up out of the south on Thursday as a front approaches the area, reaching moderate speeds by late in the day over the western islands, while a more southeast component and lighter speeds hold over the eastern end of the state. The front will fizzle out over or near Kauai late Thursday night and Friday, with winds lightening up across the state and land/sea breezes becoming dominant. The front or its remnants will lift northward Friday night and Saturday, allowing ridging to the northeast to become more dominant and bring a return of light of moderate trade winds. The trades won't last long, as yet another approaching front will shift winds southerly at moderate speeds for Sunday, followed by easing winds and land/sea breezes on Monday as the front dissipates over the central islands. High pressure building rapidly eastward to the north of the state may re-establish trades again next Tuesday.
As for the remaining weather details, dry and stable weather will continue through Thursday. A few showers will remain possible over windward slopes and coasts at night, particularly over the eastern end of the state, with a shower or two possible over the interior of all islands each afternoon. The boundary layer should begin to moisten up Thursday night, bringing a bit more shower activity northward in the southerly flow. These showers will favor south facing slopes and coasts mainly over the western islands. As deeper moisture associated with the decaying front arrives on Friday, we should see shower coverage and intensity pick up over the western islands, particularly on Kauai where a few downpours will be possible. The eastern end of the state will remain rather dry, with nothing more than a few isolated showers possible during the afternoon hours.
Scattered showers may hold on into the evening hours Friday over Kauai, before drier conditions move in after midnight. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will prevail, with the exception of windward Big Island where some deeper moisture moving in from the east will bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity through the night. Showery weather looks to hold on over windward Big Island on Saturday, while mostly dry weather prevails over the smaller islands. The next front will begin to draw some of the deeper moisture around the Big Island northward into the smaller islands Saturday night, increasing showers over south facing slopes and coasts. Some unsettled weather then appears on track to affect the state in association with the front Sunday through Monday, with some heavier showers and even a few rumbles of thunder not out of the question. A trade wind pattern appears to return next Tuesday, but lingering moisture and instability may keep showers a bit more robust than normal.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE winds expected through today with a relatively dry and stable airmass overhead. Winds will be light enough to allow for some sea breezes. Low cigs and brief SHRA possible over interior and leeward areas. MVFR conds can be expected in SHRA but otherwise VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

A surface ridge just north of Kauai will maintain gentle southeast or variable winds over the western half of the island chain and moderate east to southeast winds around the Big Island and Maui today. An approaching front will push the ridge over the islands veering winds to more of a southeast to south direction and strengthening them to moderate speeds for the western half of the state Thursday. The front will stall and weaken near Kauai on Friday as high pressure approaches from the northwest, leading to a decrease in winds and eventually bringing a return of gentle trades. As the high builds and rapidly moves off to the northeast, easterly trade winds will strengthen on Saturday, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions possible over the typically windy areas. Winds will decrease and shift out of the south as another front approaches on Sunday.
Offshore NOAA buoy 51001 has been hovering around 9 to 11 feet 14 to 16 seconds overnight due to a reinforcing boost that will keep surf elevated through today. The High Surf Warning has been cancelled and replaced with an advisory. A High Surf Advisory is now in effect through early Thursday morning for north and west facing shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island. The SCA for seas of 10 ft or more, around Kauai and north of Oahu has also been extended through late this afternoon. Surf will fall below advisory levels Thursday, followed by another large pulse of west- northwest swell on Friday and Saturday.
Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through the week, though a modest uptick in waves on the south shore is possible later Wednesday into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov