Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs around 83. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 72. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 83. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 82. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 68. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate east to southeast winds and mostly dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a few showers possible along windward slopes and coasts at night and over the island interiors each afternoon. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and Thursday, shifting winds more southerly and bringing an increase in showers, particularly over the western end of the state. The front should lift northward as a warm front on Friday, with some lingering moisture keeping some scattered shower activity in place over the western islands. A return to mostly dry and stable conditions are then forecast to follow Saturday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 1800 miles east-northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge axis extending southwest from the high to a position near over Kauai. Meanwhile a cold front is located around 250 miles northwest of the Garden Isle, with a new high building in behind the front. Light winds prevail across the island chain early this morning, with land breezes present in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in place. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward slopes and coasts as well as leeward Big Island. Main short term focus revolves around wind trends and rain chances.
The front northwest of the state will pass by to the north of the islands today, while the trailing high behind the front builds eastward and strengthens. Light and variable winds early this morning will transition over to moderate trade winds by this afternoon as the trailing high passes by to the north of the state. As this high exits to the northeast, the approach of a new front will ease the trades again tonight and Monday, with sea breezes becoming common over the western islands by Monday afternoon. Winds will ease further Monday night, followed by a return of light to moderate trades Tuesday as a new high builds eastward to the north of the state. A new stronger front will approach from the west Wednesday, shifting winds southerly at moderate levels, with the south winds then easing a bit on Thursday as the front stalls out northwest of the islands. Light to moderate southeast to south winds appear to return Friday and Saturday, as the stalled out front lifts back northward and away from the state as a warm front.
As for the remaining weather details, mostly dry and stable weather will prevail through Tuesday, with a few light showers possible over windward slopes and coasts at night, and over the island interiors each afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain minimal as low and mid level ridging will keep inversion heights suppressed. As winds turn southerly Wednesday and Thursday in advance of an approaching front, the boundary layer should moisten up a bit and inversion heights should rise slightly, bringing an increase in showers, particularly over the western end of the state. As the front lifts northward as a warm front on Friday, some lingering moisture may keep some scattered shower activity over the western islands, followed by a return of mostly dry and stable conditions next Saturday.

Aviation

A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will keep the ridge in a weakened state just north of the island chain. A combination of easterly winds and sea breezes will affect each island today with clouds building over mountain and interior sections in the afternoon hours.
No AIRMET's are in effect.

Marine

High pressure building north of the islands will support light to moderate east to northeast trade winds today into Monday. A front is then forecast to pass just north of the islands on Monday, weakening wind speeds over the islands again into Monday night. A very short period of east to east-southeast trades returns for Tuesday and Tuesday night, before quickly shifting out of the south Wednesday ahead of a front approaching from the northwest.
The current building west-northwest swell should bring surf heights up to advisory levels today, peaking this afternoon along north and west facing shores. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north facing shores of Maui through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for hazardous seas of 10+ feet through tonight. This swell will slowly lower through the first part of next week. A similar sized northwest swell is expected to build in late Tuesday and linger through Wednesday, resulting in peak surf heights above advisory levels for north and west facing shores. A larger northwest swell is then possible towards the end of the week. Small surf is expected along south and east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov