Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Windy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to strong trades will continue through the forecast period bringing a return to a typical distribution of clouds and showers focused mainly over windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a strong 1035 mb high is centered around 850 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy to windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas, with clear to partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery showers a few showers moving into windward Maui and the Big Island, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Main short focus revolves around the strong winds and the potential need for a Wind Advisory across portions of the state during the next couple days.
Strong high pressure will build eastward well to the north of the islands during the next couple days. This high will weaken Thursday and Friday, before being quickly replaced by a new strong high building north of the area over the weekend into early next week. An extended period of breezy to windy trades can be expected across the island chain. The winds appear particularly strong today and Wednesday, and as a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for much of Maui County and Big Island. Winds should remain just below advisory levels on Kauai and Oahu.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather featuring windward and mauka showers along with the occasional leeward spillover should continue through Wednesday night. There will likely be a bit more shower activity across the eastern islands today where some deeper moisture is present, before the shower become more evenly distributed across the state this afternoon and tonight. An old front appears to get pushed through the islands Thursday, which will likely increase trade wind shower coverage as it moves through. Fairly typical trade wind weather should then fill back in Thursday night and continue through early next week, with periodic bands of moisture moving in on the trades and increasing shower coverage as they do.

Aviation

Strong surface high pressure will pass north of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next several days and bring breezy to locally windy trade winds. These winds will likely generate low-level turbulence in the lee of mountain terrain, see AIRMET TANGO for details. Periods of clouds and brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas during the overnight to early morning hours. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility will be possible in showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.
AIRMET TANGO for low-level turbulence over and downstream of island terrain is in effect due to the breezy to locally windy trade winds and will likely be extended through the next several days.

Marine

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across Hawaiian waters into early Thursday as a high pressure system lingers north of the island chain. Winds should trend slightly lower from late Thursday into Saturday, as a cold front approaches island waters from the north. Seas will remain rough through the week, with a combination of short period wind waves and northwest swells moving through the Hawaii Region. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for all Hawaiian waters through much of the week due to a combination of strong winds and higher seas.
Surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores will hold at low end High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels through the morning hours along exposed north and west facing shores as a northwest (310-320 degrees) swell continues to move down the island chain. Surf heights will fall just below HSA thresholds by this afternoon and then gradually ease through Wednesday night. Another upward trend is expected late Thursday through Saturday as a couple of northwest (320-330 degrees) swells arrive, peaking Friday night into Saturday. This may push surf heights back to advisory levels at the peak late Friday into Saturday. A downward trend is then expected through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the week due to strong easterly trade winds.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with mainly background south and southeast swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until noon HST today for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov