West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows 69 to 76. East winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny…breezy and haze. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 70 to 77. North winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows around 72. East winds up to 25 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny…breezy and haze. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny and haze. Highs 61 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and haze. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows 62 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny…breezy and haze. Highs 74 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade wind will prevail through the next couple of days, with shower activity favoring predominately windward and mauka areas. Winds will begin to weaken toward the latter half of the week, resulting in more widespread leeward sea breezes and bringing elevated chances for interior and leeward shower activity, mainly across western islands.

Discussion

A broad, quasi-stationary surface high well north of the Hawaiian Islands continues to be the driving force for moderate to locally breezy trades as the local pressure gradient tightens. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging has steadily built south of the islands, solidifying stable conditions within this pattern. As a result, the aforementioned trades and stable conditions will help to maintain a rather considerable decrease in shower activity across the state, including windward and mauka areas.
This pattern will prevail through today, maintaining moderate to locally breezy trades, with modest cloud coverage and reduced shower activity to continue as well. However, subtle changes are looming in the near future, as a strengthening upper-level trough and associated surface trough propagate just northwest of the islands. This will lead to a shortwave passing in the vicinity of Kauai, resulting in the development of sea breezes in the afternoon for western slopes of island mountains and increased shower activity for leeward areas, despite the overall drier conditions still in place.
Latest model guidance still supports a return of stable summertime trades during the latter half of the week as the aforementioned troughs to the northwest weaken. Trades will be slightly lighter in strength initially, but are progged to increase back to moderate to locally breezy by the end of the forecast period, as well as more typical shower activity to windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will persist over the next couple of days. Expect cloud coverage and showers to favor windward and mauka areas, where MVFR conditions will be possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains centered far north of the Hawaiian Islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters around Maui County and the windier waters around the Big Island. Lighter winds are forecast from Thursday night into the weekend.
Several pulses of southerly and southwesterly swells will continue to boost surf heights along south and some west facing shores through the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat through the forecast period.
Peak monthly high tides associated with the lunar cycle, combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is expected around the daily peak tide each afternoon through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for Maui County and the Big Island.

Fire weather

Drier conditions are expected to develop this week and will exacerbate short term fire weather conditions, predominately over the leeward areas where rainfall has deprived. Latest KBDI values for the Honolulu International Airport (HNL) have exceeded 600 threshold and will remain elevated above that threshold until significant rain occurs, which does not appear likely for weeks or possibly months as the peak of dry season is near. Expect dry and stable conditions today, with near critical winds and relative humidity. Winds are expected to be a bit lighter tomorrow, especially over sheltered leeward areas.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov