West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. North winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 75 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 74 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will produce mostly light showers over windward and mauka areas into the weekend. Most leeward areas will continue to be rather dry, except the Kona slopes of the Big Island where scattered showers will develop each afternoon.

Discussion

Looking at satellite and radar this morning, some isolated showers continue moving across the region with some low clouds riding in on the trades. No major changes are expected to the forecast.
A subtropical ridge sitting about 250 miles north of the islands and continues to be weakened by an area of low pressure farther to the north. A ridge aloft is producing stable and dry conditions. Trades expected to remain stable and in the light to moderate range through the weekend. Guidance has been hinting at a band of moisture moving through Saturday night or Sunday, which could lead to a brief boost in windward and mauka showers.
Heading into the middle of next week, forecast uncertainty increases due to the passage of Hurricane Kiko over the region. Given uncertainty at this time, it remains too early to tell what, if any, impacts this system will have on local weather.

Aviation

Light to moderate trades expected for the next few days. Low cigs and isol SHRA possible over windward and mauka areas. MVFR conds in SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
No AIRMETS are in effect.

Marine

A weak surface ridge to the north will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period. This will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds with some localized sea breezes, especially across leeward waters.
Surf along north facing shores will gradually decline today as a mix of the north and northwest swells fade through Thursday. Reinforcing small short- to medium-period north-northwest swells are expected through the end week which will keep surf from going flat. In the extended forecast, the northwest Pacific looks to get active as low pressure systems traverse the basin over the weekend sending the potential for a few small to moderate swells during the middle of next week.
Surf along south facing shores will see background medium- to long- period energy through the week before a small to moderate long- period south-southwest swell fills, and peaks over the weekend.
Below average surf is expected to continue along east facing shores through the rest of the week. In the extended forecast, easterly energy from Hurricane Kiko in the Eastern Pacific is expected early next week that could potentially bring surf to near High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria.
Peak monthly high tides, combined with water levels running higher than predicted, may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued through Sunday afternoon.

Fire weather

Light to moderate trade winds will remain below the critical fire weather thresholds through at least the weekend. Dry and stable conditions will prevail, with afternoon relative humidity dropping to around 45 percent each afternoon through Saturday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov