West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy and breezy. Lows 70 to 77. East winds up to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy. Lows 71 to 78. North winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. Breezy. Highs 83 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 74 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trades return today with a chance of afternoon showers over the interior and western portions of Kauai and Oahu. Stability then steadily increases heading into next week as moderate trades take hold.

Discussion

Slug of low-level moisture west of the Big Island is advancing northwestward beneath a canopy of high clouds aloft. Veered flow in the lower levels will draw this moisture over the remainder of the island chain on Saturday. At the same time, weak returning trade winds will give way to a hybrid sea breeze pattern in the afternoon setting the stage for afternoon showers focused over leeward slopes of Oahu and Kauai. With the resident upper low still in close proximity, slightly cooler-than-normal mid-level temps and cyclonic flow aloft may allow for a few heavy showers. Localized nuisance type flooding cannot be ruled out. 590+dm mid- level ridging then builds into the area during the remainder of the weekend into next week favoring a return to a moderate, high stability trade wind pattern with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka slopes, particularly overnight. A remnant frontal moisture band embedded in the trades is modeled to bring an uptick in shower coverage midweek.

Aviation

A surface trough near Kauai continues to slowly move westward this morning. Shower coverage looks sparse, but lingering instability from the upper low could still allow some heavier showers to develop and drift ashore from the south. The afternoon could also see some shower development over interior and leeward areas. Trade winds will start filling back in later today into tomorrow, shifting showers and MVFR vis/cigs back to typical windward and mountain areas.
No AIRMETs are in effect, although mtn obscuration is possible this afternoon with any shower development.
Light icing is possible over Maui and Big Island in lyr 150-FL260 due to high level clouds filling in over the area from an upper level jet. These conditions will remain possible through the morning.

Marine

A surface low associated with a trough west of the offshore waters will continue to drift west and weaken through Sunday. A chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain over the northwest offshore waters through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will build in from the east to west today. Trade winds look to gradually strengthen to locally strong speeds, bringing back the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island Sunday through the first half of next week.
Surf along south facing shores will gradually build as a small to moderate medium to long period south swell fills in today and looks to hold through the weekend. A series of small medium period south swells will keep surf from going flat through the middle of next week.
Fading energy from the north-northeast swell will continue to drop today, as a small medium to long period northwest swell is expected to fill in and hold through the evening before declining Sunday. A series of tiny to small swells from the north and northwest will trickle in through next week Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores should increase Sunday as trade winds return, along side a tiny medium period easterly swell generated from Hurricane Narda far to the east.

Fire weather

Conditions remain below the critical fire weather threshold through the weekend as light winds persist through Saturday and high RH associated with resident low pressure persists. Moderate trades and drier conditions expected by next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov