West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 76. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northwest winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 77. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 69 to 74. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 75. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 90. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will continue through Friday night in response to an approaching cold front in the North Central Pacific, allowing localized daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes through Friday night. Moderate trades may build back this weekend into early next week as a new high builds north of the state.

Discussion

Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will continue through Friday night in response to an approaching cold front in the North Central Pacific. 12Z soundings show conditions aloft remain stable with a 7 to 8 kft inversion across the state. Infrared satellite and radar show low clouds and a few showers tracking in a southeast to northwest direction this morning occasionally impacting windward slopes. Most showers are passing north and south of the islands likely from downstream partial blockage from the Big Island. Showers will taper off through the late morning, while mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail for leeward locations.
The light wind flow and Big Island blockage will allow localized sea breezes and interior cloud build ups and showers over the islands this afternoon. Land breezes will clear out the islands tonight, followed by a diurnal repeat Friday and Friday night. Downstream convergence along the leeward sides of island mountains could produce plumes of clouds and showers that extend west to northwest from each island, and could anchor showers over windward and southeast sides of the smaller islands at times overriding the land breeze suppression.
Guidance indicates that easterly trades will build back into the region this weekend and early next week as a new high develops and strengthens far north of the state. However, global models differ significantly regarding the development of a trough northeast of the islands by the middle of next week. This could cause significant differences in the wind and shower regimes near the end of the seven day forecast.

Aviation

Moderate trades will persist and gradually veer ESE tomorrow into Friday. Low clouds and showers will mainly focus over windward and mountain areas, particularly overnight into the early morning hours. The slightly veered trade wind flow may allow for sea breezes to develop across leeward areas each afternoon, bringing clouds and isolated showers to those areas. MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers through the period. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect. AIRMET Sierra may be needed across some windward areas tonight if shower coverage becomes sufficient.
Kilauea eruption episode 34 ended this morning at 7:03 AM HST. The potential for ash to impact aviation has diminished, so VA SIGMET Whiskey has been cancelled.

Marine

Surface high pressure northeast of the waters will continue to drift east through the end of the week as a trough passes far north of the waters. The current gentle to locally fresh trade winds will veer east southeast and trend lighter through Saturday giving way to localized land and seabreezes over leeward waters. High pressure will build in from the northwest allowing moderate to locally fresh trade winds to return this weekend and hold through the forecast period.
A small medium to long period northwest (300 deg) swell from Tropical cyclone Neoguri has begun to fill in early this morning, will peak later today before declining through Friday. A moderate, medium period north northwest (330 deg) swell generated from the current low tracking across the northwest Pacific is expected to fill in on Saturday, peak Sunday just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria for north facing shores, and slowly fade into early next week. Another small medium to long period swell from the northwest (320 deg) is expected to fill in Monday, peak Tuesday and decline through the middle of next week.
The current small, medium period southwest (210 deg) swell has filled in overnight and will peak today, before fading Friday. Another small long period southwest (210 deg) swell is expected to rise late Friday through Saturday before declining into early next week. Surf along east- facing shores will remain below average into early next week.

Fire weather

Wind speeds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds for the next seven days. Temperature inversion heights across the state will range from 7,000 to 8,500 feet.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov