West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 78. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 60 to 68. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 79. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 45 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 78. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 61 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 36 to 48. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 45 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 66 to 73. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 58 to 63. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 62 to 79. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 52 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 63 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will prevail through today, decreasing slightly by tomorrow, before easing to a more light and variable pattern by this weekend. Shower activity will be kept to a minimum as a cooler and drier airmass filters over the Hawaiian Islands. A cold, upper-level trough makes an appearance late in the week and may slightly enhance trade wind showers, but any meaningful rainfall still remains unlikely.

Discussion

An upper-level trough remains just northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, continuing to slowly shift northeast, while a broad 1032 mb surface high building in its wake from the northwest. These features will be the catalyst to driving moderate to locally breezy trades across statewide through much of today. Guidance suggests today will be the windiest day of the week, though most locations will remain just below Wind Advisory thresholds. However, it cannot be ruled out that some of the more usual wind- prone locations could occasionally edge near the criteria.
Shower activity will also focus low clouds and showers across windward and mauka areas, but rainfall will be sparse. Latest model guidance continues to show precipitable water values two to three standard deviations below average. This is largely due to a drier airmass filtering in over the entire state. Some guidance preserve the slight uptick in thunderstorm potential of up to 15 percent over the southern slopes of the Big Island. However, with moisture levels running exceptionally low, any storms that do form would likely be “dry” thunderstorms, producing lightning with little to no rainfall. Given that the atmosphere may still be too dry, confidence of storm development, too, remains low.
Looking ahead, trades will begin to ease by tomorrow as the aforementioned high pressure will begin to weaken, becoming light and variable by this weekend and persisting that way through the remainder of the forecast period. Right around the same time, a weak upper- level trough is anticipated to pass within the vicinity of the islands. Moisture will remain limited, though, and any meaningful increase in rainfall still appears unlikely at this time. This system will be monitored and refined throughout the next several days as the pattern evolves.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades through tonight. Isol low cigs and SHRA along windward and mauka locations. Some isol pockets of MVFR conds possible, but VFR will prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 080 downwind of terrain.

Marine

Fresh to strong NNE trades through tonight, easing during the second half of the week as a trough develops E of the state and high pressure shifts east. Another trough will develop N of the state towards the end of the week which will further weaken trades. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through tomorrow due to winds.
A moderate short period NNE (020 degree) swell generated by a gale low NE of the state will hold through tonight. While surf hasn't reached High Surf advisory criteria, the MWS for harbor surges remains in effect until 6pm tonight given little change in surf conditions is anticipated.
Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy due to the strong trade winds, with some areas also being exposed to the incoming NNE swell. South shores will continue to see small pulses from the southern hemisphere over the next few days. A storm- force low developing southeast of New Zealand over the next few days could send a moderate south- southwest swell the following week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov