West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 77. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 78. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 74. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 47 to 59. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 73 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 76. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds can be expected through the weekend and likely into the first half of next week, pushing showers over mostly windward and mountain areas. These showers will be more active during the night time and early morning hours. A mid level and upper level trough could occasionally allow some of these showers to be a little heavier than normal.

Discussion

An upper level low centered several hundred miles north of Hawaii is producing bands of cirrus cloud cover over the islands of Kauai and Oahu and working to enhance trade wind shower activity in the vicinity this morning. Surface high pressure centered far north of the state is also driving breezy easterly trade winds which will carry pockets of moisture and low clouds through the weekend. Nighttime and early morning hours along windward slopes will be the prime time and location for the majority of the showers. Isolated leeward showers will also be possible across the smaller islands, and along the Kona slopes during the afternoons. The surface high will remain nearly stationary into next week while the upper low drifts slowly to linger over the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands this weekend into the coming week.
Long range guidance suggests another influx of moisture arriving next week with dew points forecast to rise above 70 on Monday. At least the first half of the week looks to be humid, with increased chances for precipitation and heavier rain showers, especially by mid-week as a low-level trough tracks east to west across the region. There are some differences in model solutions regarding trade wind speeds due to the forecasted strength and position of the high pressure to the north, especially by mid- week.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trades are expected through the forecast period. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Expect MVFR conditions within showers and VFR elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions may linger into the morning due to the ongoing and upstream showers. The mountain obscurations for the kona slopes have been cancelled due to conditions improving overnight.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds and will continue overnight.

Marine

High pressure to the north will dominate through at least the first half of next week, keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds in place across Hawaiian waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. Although the SCA goes through Friday afternoon, it will likely be extended through the weekend.
A long period south swell will peak today with head high to overhead surf heights at most exposed south shore surf breaks, then slowly decrease Friday and Saturday. Another pulse of south swell energy will then arrive on Saturday and peak by Sunday before gradually declining next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy into the weekend as breezy trades persist. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain small to tiny through the first half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov