West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 42 to 54. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 63 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through much of next week as high pressure remains north of the state. Windward and mauka showers will continue, with a slight uptick in moisture possible late next week, mainly near the Big Island. Trades should gradually ease late next week, with a drier pattern possible late next weekend.

Discussion

Broad surface high pressure anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands continues to dominate the Central Pacific through the next several days, maintaining a moderate to locally breezy trade wind regime. Embedded within the trades, isolated showers will continue to favor windward and mauka locations of all islands, with occasional spillover into leeward communities. PWAT anomalies are forecast to remain within one standard deviation of climatological normal through much of the forecast period.
Toward the end of next week, some model guidance indicates a modest uptick in moisture associated with a weak surface low passing south of the state. This feature would briefly raise PWAT anomalies to around two to three standard deviations above normal, though any increase in shower activity will be confined to the Big Island before moisture values return to near-normal levels.
Beyond this period, longer-range guidance suggests the aforementioned surface ridge will gradually shift northeastward and weaken as early as the middle of next week. Attention then turns to the deep tropics, where some ensemble guidance is beginning to hint at potential tropical development. While it remains far too early to speculate on any potential impacts to the Hawaiian Islands, the signal bears monitoring in future forecast cycles.
Confidence is somewhat higher in the broader pattern evolution, with the weakening and eastward retreat of the high leading to a gradual easing of the trade winds late next week. Shower coverage should decrease as well, with some guidance suggesting a modest drying trend that could persist into the latter end of the weekend. However, given the extended forecast range, confidence in the timing and magnitude of these changes remains low at this time.

Aviation

Overall weather pattern continues to favor breezy trades through the weekend. Periodic showers are possible across mainly windward sites, bringing tempo MVFR conditions as a result, but otherwise expecting mostly VFR conditions across the state.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward of all islands as a result of the aforementioned shower activity. This may continue through the morning and even into the afternoon hours.
AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for low-level turbulence downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue for the next several days as we remain under a breezy trade wind pattern.

Marine

Main change this morning was to extend the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) another 24 hours for all waters. A very good ASCAT pass over the area last night showed SCA winds over a variety of coastal waters. The various high resolution models indicate little change over the next 24 hours, so have chosen to extend the SCA through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains very similar.
A strong high pressure system remains north of the state, bringing fresh to strong trade winds to the area. The trades may weaken slightly in a day or two, which will likely lead to the SCA being scaled back to those windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
A small to moderate, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) will continue to fill in through Monday, boosting boost surf over the next few days. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period due to the fresh to strong trade winds. A series of small, moderate period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells will hold over the next few days, followed by a small, long-period west- northwest (280 to 290 degrees) swell heading into midweek, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Higher than normal high tides are expected due to upcoming King Tides, and with water levels running slightly higher than predicted, minor coastal flooding will be possible each afternoon starting tomorrow through Wednesday. However, minor coastal flooding is most likely to occur on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov