Polynesian Voyaging Society adds one year to Moananuiākea Voyage due to updated climate outlook

The Polynesian Voyaging Society today announced a revised schedule for the Western Pacific portion of the Moananuiākea Voyage in response to confirmed elevated weather risks caused by El Niño and changing climate.  The revision will add one year to the Moananuiākea Voyage.

With help from data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), PVS has been conducting extensive research and tracking the progression of El Niño.  The latest report issued in early July by NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through Spring 2027, an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in October – December 2026 and a very high probability that it would rank among the strongest El Niño events in 75 years, all increasing the likelihood and risk of dangerous weather and sailing conditions across the Western North Pacific.

PVS CEO and Pwo Navigator Nainoa Thompson spoke with the Climate Prediction Center forecasters and reports they said “The winds are not going to be in your favor.  The risk of typhoons is going to be very high, and the heat that’s coming out of the ocean is going to create convection, convection creates thunderstorms, thunderstorms create lightning.” Thompson said “So there is a whole menu and safety checklist we look at in terms of determining where we go.”   

The sail plan was for the voyaging canoes Hōkūleʻa and Hikianalia to sail as far north as Hokkaido, Japan in 2027.  But, to ensure the safety of its crew, PVS leadership has decided to keep the canoes in the southern hemisphere of the Pacific Ocean, and then proceed to Northeast Asia in 2028.  The canoes have been in Aotearoa (New Zealand) since November 2025.  

“Nature is telling us what to do. We go when nature allows us to go, when nature gives us permission to go. And I do think our ability to be sailing for 50 years was being disciplined to that,” said Thompson. “So I don’t see it as postponement. I don’t see it as delay. I see it as being respectful, paying attention, being humble with nature, especially now when the weather is what I would characterize as extreme,” he added.

Over the next 17 months, the canoes will visit Fiji (October 2026) to participate in the Pre-COP international ocean and climate meetings, which precede the annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP), then make return visits to Aotearoa, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia.  Additional planned stops in 2027 will include American Sāmoa, Sāmoa, Tonga, the region of Melanesia and Micronesia.

This shift in timing is not a pause in the voyage.  Rather, it provides meaningful opportunities for deeper cultural exchange, expanded education outreach, and collective climate action with communities and institutions across the Pacific that are preparing for Hōkūleʻa and Hikianaliaʻs arrival.

In early 2028, the canoes will depart Micronesia and head to the Philippines, Taiwan, Okinawa, mainland Japan, South Korea and Hokkaido.

Revised Pending Sail Plan (as of July 2026)

2026

• Sail from Aotearoa to Fiji and other islands: Mid-September to Early October 
• Stops in Fiji and other islands: Late September to Mid-October
  • Pre-COP Meeting in Fiji – Oct. 5-8, 2026
• Sail from Fiji to Aotearoa: Mid October to Nov. 10 
• Circumnavigation of Aotearoa’s north and south islands: Dec. 2026 to Feb. 2027

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2027 

• Continue Circumnavigation of Aotearoa’s north and south islands: Jan. to Feb. 2027
• Drydock in Aotearoa: February to April 2027
• Sail from Aotearoa to Cook Islands: Estimated departure: Late April 2027
• Sail through Polynesian region (Including Cook Islands, French Polynesia, American Sāmoa, Sāmoa, Tonga, and other islands): May to September 2027 
• Stops in Melanesia: October to early November 2027
• Stops in Micronesia: Early November 2027 to Early January 2028

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2028

• Palau, Micronesia: January 2028
• Philippines: February 2028
• Taiwan: March 2028
• Okinawa, Japan, South Korea, Hokkaido: April to August 2028

The revised sail plan remains pending and will continue to be refined as NOAA climate outlooks, regional weather forecasts, and ocean conditions evolve. As navigators have done for generations, every major voyage decision will continue to be guided by careful observation of nature and the safety of the crews and canoes.

“Nothing is normal anymore,” said Thompson. “El Niño, coupled with climate change and oceans saturated with heat and carbon, is creating weather patterns that are increasingly unpredictable and more dangerous for traditional voyaging. For these reasons we must continue adjusting our sail plan based on what nature allows us to do.

We truly appreciate the understanding and flexibility of all of our host islands and communities.  Our responsibility has always been to protect our crews and our canoes,” Thompson said. “Traditional voyaging teaches us to observe, to listen, and to remain humble before nature. We don’t force the schedule, we voyage when the ocean tells us it is safe.”