Nolo strengthening: Heavy rain could begin late today over Hawaiʻi Island

(Update: 5 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026) Nolo is strengthening and heavy rain could begin late today over the Big Island of Hawaiʻi. At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located about 285 miles south of South Point on Hawaiʻi Island and 455 miles SSE of Honolulu, Oʻahu, near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.2 West. Nolo is stationary but is expected to move to the north or north-northeast later today through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn by Saturday in the vicinity of the Big Island.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaiʻi County, meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings could be required.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting as early as Friday night.

RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Hawaii County (1 to 3 ft). The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.