West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 79. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 70 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Northeasterly trade winds should slightly strengthen to moderate speeds today then gradually weaken Sunday into Monday. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds, favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. A significant change to our weather pattern is expected next week. Deep tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms across the state starting around Tuesday and persisting through at least Thursday.

Discussion

This morning's satellite imagery shows an old frontal boundary starting to move into Kauai. This should bring an uptick of scattered showers over Kauai today especially windward and mauka areas. No significant impacts are expected, but it will be showery at times especially over north Kauai. Over on the eastern half of the state, we do have some passing showers over windward and mauka areas due to a weak surface trough located just east of the Big Island. This trough is expected to gradually move east and away from the state this weekend, but some enhanced moisture lingering around east Maui and windward Big Island will produce scattered showers.
For next week, while the forecast still remains complicated, global models and its ensemble members have been slowly coming into better agreement. A low pressure system embedded within a monsoon trough is currently located just west of the Dateline near 14N. This low is expected to gradually move eastward along with the monsoon trough that extends over 1000 miles east of the low pressure system. An approaching upper level trough from the northwest Monday into Tuesday will allow the monsoon trough to lift northward and approach the Hawaiian Islands. Deep tropical moisture with precipitable water values exceeding 2.5 inches is expected to move over the state Tuesday into Wednesday. During this time, an upper level short-wave trough will swing through the state and will provide the support and lift (strong diffulence aloft) for thunderstorms to develop. With the ample upper level support, we could see organized thunderstorms such as squall lines or an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) develop and if they do, they will be capable of producing damaging winds as well as torrential rainfall.
While the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding will exist across the state Tuesday into Wednesday and likely into Thursday as well, the heaviest rainfall period based off of the 00Z Grand Ensemble mean looks to be from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Latest model trends in the ensembles have been placing the heaviest rainfall totals slightly further east with the heaviest precipitation expected to be somewhere between Oahu and the Big Island. The forecast has been trended this way, but please keep in mind, there is still plenty of uncertainty and the forecast will change in the coming days. Flood Watches will eventually get issued for the entire state as we get closer to next week.
In summary, next week looks to be a very unusual weather pattern setting up for Hawaii. While we don't know exactly where the thunderstorms will set up, the greatest probability looks to be somewhere between Oahu and the Big Island at this time. Due to the very high precipitable water values (99th percentile) and ample upper level support from the short-wave trough, extreme rainfall rates will be possible especially around late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation

A trough to the north of the island chain will move southward across the western portion of the state today. This will lead to an increase in shower activity, which we have already seen early this morning at PHTO. Have included a TEMPO for low MVFR, but a brief drop to IFR cigs/vis is possible. Scattered showers are expected during the afternoon with MVFR cigs possible with heavier showers. The core of the jet stream currently just north of the islands will continue to push east, which should reduce the threat for light-mod turbulence through mid morning. SIGMET Romeo remains in place for possible severe turbulence where the jet is strongest.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for windward sections of the Big Island.

Marine

A surface low far north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will dig southward through the weekend and will stall roughly 800 to 900 nm northeast of Oahu on Monday, keeping the subtropical ridge just north of the area rather weak. Trade winds will be at gentle to moderate strength during much of this time, though a brief period of fresh northeast winds may accompany a shallow band of showers moving over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon into tonight. An area of low pressure is expected to move over the islands from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing variable winds and the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Small surf along north-facing shores will begin to build rapidly this afternoon and evening as a moderate, medium-period north- northwest swell arrives. Surf will reach near seasonal average during the peak of the swell tonight into Sunday. As this swell declines on Monday, a long-period northwest swell will arrive. This swell will generate moderate surf along north- and west- facing shores through Wednesday. A small north-northeast swell will be possible during the second half of next week.
A series of small overlapping south-southwest swells will push surf back to around seasonal average today into early next week. A larger south-southwest swell may push surf above seasonal average late next week.
Surf along most east-facing shores will be small through early next week, but areas exposed to wrapping northerly swells will experience periods of moderate surf late Saturday through Monday. East-facing shores should also see a bump in surf if the north- northeast swell materialized during the latter half of next week.

Fire weather

Issued at 320 AM HST Sat Oct 24 2026
Gentle to moderate trade winds with mostly dry conditions over leeward areas will continue to produce low to moderate fire weather conditions through the weekend. A drier airmass moving in later tonight could produce lower humidities for Sunday with minimum RH's getting down to the low 40s for select leeward areas. Ample tropical moisture will move in from the southwest sometime beginning Monday night or Tuesday, bringing a threat for heavy rain through at least Thursday. As a result, fire weather concerns will be low through most of next week. Inversion heights will range from 5,000 to 8,000 feet this weekend with the higher inversion heights over the eastern end of the state due to a weak trough just east of the Big Island.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov