Malika Dudley’s Daily Weather Forecast (10/17/14)

Satellite imagery, 6:30 a.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley

***An 11 a.m. update on Tropical Cyclone Ana, now Hurricane Ana, is posted at the following LINK.

Alerts:

TROPICAL STORM WATCH posted for Maui leeward waters and parts of the ʻAlenuihāhā Channel

Today:

Generally clear skies this morning over Maui County but that is expected to change. We will continue to monitor how ANA interacts with the island of Hawaiʻi (if at all) to tweak the Maui County forecast as the system continues to approach. For now, skies are expected to become mostly cloudy today with scattered showers. Highs in the 80’s with winds out of the east at 15 to 20 mph. Tonight windward sides should see an increase in showers with scattered showers for leeward spots. There is a chance of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall at that time as well. Winds are also expected to bump up a notch to 20 – 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.

ANA: 

The probability of tropical storm conditions for the areas under a watch is decreasing, now at 34%. The chance of hurricane conditions is very small. Although this means we are not very likely to experience sustained winds of at least 39 mph in Maui County, residents need to keep in mind that a slight jog to the right could result in higher winds on Saturday and possibly drastically change the final outcome. For now, winds on Saturday are expected out of the east at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph in some spots.

Full detailed 5 a.m. ANA update can be found here.

Surf & Seas:

Maui County will be heavily shadowed by the Big Island for the first shot of ANA swell energy out of the east-southeast. We only expect a fraction of the swell to reach us sometime on Saturday. Seas up to 15 feet are possible upon ANA’s closest approach to Maui County late Saturday / early Sunday. Conditions are likely to be choppy and sloppy but vary greatly depending on what ANA ends up doing in the near term. On the other side of the island, a mix of north swells is expected through tomorrow with heights reaching waist to head high at the best exposures.

Other Areas of Interest:

Sunset tonight at 6:01 p.m.

Sunrise tomorrow at 6:22 a.m.

UV index at 10 (“very high” exposure level)