Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 65. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly between 7am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming east 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will prevail through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Rainfall chances will quickly rise Tuesday as the winds shift out of the south to southwest ahead of a strong cold front approaching. This front will quickly advance down the island chain late Tuesday through midweek. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front. Cooler and drier conditions will follow the front Wednesday into Thursday.

Discussion

A mostly dry and stable trade wind pattern is anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds far north of the state and an upper ridge remains in place. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations, mainly through the overnight and early morning hours as bands of moisture move through from east to west. A transition period is expected Monday into Monday night as a strong shortwave trough and its attendant cold front approach the region. Although mostly dry conditions should prevail Monday, the low-level flow will begin to shift out of the east-southeast and trend down – potentially enough for sea breezes and a few interior/leeward showers Monday afternoon.
The long-term guidance remains in decent agreement and shows this cold front approaching through the day Tuesday, then quickly advancing down the island chain Tuesday night through midweek. Winds will shift out of the south to southwest and increase to moderate levels ahead of the front. Plenty of moisture pooling northward over the state combined with lowering upper heights will drive the rainfall chances up along and ahead of this feature. Although guidance does show this boundary quickly moving through, localized flooding will be a concern. In addition to the rainfall potential, a few thunderstorms will be possible.
Cooler and drier conditions will fill in over Kauai and Oahu Wednesday through Thursday in the wake of the front. Guidance depicts dewpoints dipping into the low-to-mid 50s over these areas by Wednesday afternoon. Forecast confidence lowers quickly beyond this point and will depend mostly on how far the front progresses eastward and the evolution of a broad area of low pressure progged to setup nearby to the northwest by Thursday.

Aviation

With robust high pressure remaining far north of the state, trade winds in the breezy to locally strong category will persist. Showers and accompanying MVFR conditions will mainly affect windward and mauka sections on the individual islands.
An AIRMET for low level turbulence is in effect to the south through west of the mountains on all islands due to the brisk trades.

Marine

As observed by the most recent early morning ASCAT passes, nearshore water trade winds are holding fresh to locally strong through the notoriously windier areas. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Sunday afternoon for all of the nearshore Hawaiian waters. Trades will stay at these fresh to locally strong magnitudes and, with near 10 foot seas from passing northwest swells, this weekend’s all water SCA will be warranted. Trades will weaken going into the first couple of days of February in response to an approaching cold front northwest of the state. Gentle to moderate breezes will veer out of the south as this front enters the far northwest offshore waters Tuesday.
North and west-facing shore surf in association with a 6 foot, 15 second northwest swell passing around the islands today will peak just below High Surf Advisory levels. Northern and western exposed shoreline surf will begin to slowly subside Sunday through Monday. A series of small, northerly swells will continue to fill in through early next week. Models are timing the next large northwest swell on Wednesday and Thursday that, if it does come to fruition, will produce XL surf.
Strong trades that have recently generated high easterly seas have weakened enough to allow east-facing shoreline surf to fall below advisory levels. Eastern exposed shore surf will continue to slowly decline as trades ease early next week. Small background south swell will continue to produce seasonable low southern- facing shore surf the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov