Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming south 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. East northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph becoming south in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 15 mph becoming west in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. East northeast wind around 13 mph.

Wednesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds with brief passing windward and mountain showers in the forecast into Friday. The ridge will weaken from late Friday into the weekend as a dissipating cold front approaches from the north. Lighter wind speed trends are expected along with a slight decrease in shower activity this weekend.

Discussion

The large scale weather picture remains the same this morning as a large high pressure ridge locked in place north of the region with a nearly stationary low pressure system west-northwest of the islands near the Dateline. Satellite imagery shows stable clouds drifting into each island on the trade winds. Local radar shows brief passing showers drifting through the islands mainly affecting windward and mountain sections. Drier conditions are observed over leeward areas.
The large subtropical ridge north of the state will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds into Friday. A combination of breezy surface winds and passing mid level disturbances will keep brief passing showers in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas. Daily rainfall amounts will remain light for most locations.
Weather conditions change a bit from Friday into the weekend as a dissipating cold front approaches the islands from the north. This frontal trough will break down the high pressure ridge north of the islands and decrease the trade winds into the light to moderate range. Shower activity will also trend a bit lower this weekend as wind speeds decrease.
The high pressure ridge builds back in north of the region late Sunday into Monday with moderate trade winds in the forecast. A cloud boundary associated with a dissipated cold front will linger just north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest long range guidance continues to suggest any clouds and showers with this feature will remain just north of Kauai with little impact in our local island weather.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in place for the next few days. Very little change in weather pattern is expected, with scattered showers favoring windward slopes and coasts, and a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, but predominantly VFR conditions should prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island. Conditions should improve later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue for the next few days.

Marine

The tight pressure gradient produced by high pressure north northeast of the islands will maintain these ongoing moderate to fresh trade winds through the work week. A slight strengthening of areawide trades to more sustained fresh to locally strong magnitudes within the channels and bays has the Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all nearshore waters (except for the windward Kauai waters) through Wednesday afternoon.
The recent moderate southwest to south swell has diminished but a series of low background southwest south swells traveling through the next several days will hold slightly below normal surf along many south facing shores. North facing shore surf will remain near flat with some spots benefiting from a trade wind wave wrap through the remainder of the week. The only notable surf will be along eastern exposed shores. Persistent moderate to locally strong trades over and upstream of the islands will push in a higher wind wave swell that will produce east coast choppy conditions and near summertime average surf heights.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov