Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 68. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with a northeast wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. East wind around 13 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 56. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a light northeast wind becoming east 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 73. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface high far northeast of the area will build southwest. Breezy easterly trade winds will persist through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Ridging aloft will keep the atmosphere dry and stable. The trade winds will carry clouds and some showers over windward areas, during mainly night and morning hours. Leeward areas of the smaller islands will be mostly dry. Clouds and showers will affect the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the afternoons and evenings.

Discussion

The global models continue to show a high far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands building southwest over the next several days. Breezy trade winds will persist. Winds speeds will peak around Saturday when the high is directly north of the islands, then slowly drop as the high moves farther west.
Ridging aloft will produce subsiding air over the islands with a rather strong and low temperature inversion. The inversion will cap low level clouds and keep rainfall very light over most areas. The trade winds will push clouds and some showers over windward areas. These showers will be most active during the nights and early mornings. Leeward areas of the smaller islands will remain very dry. The trade winds will be blocked by the high terrain on the Big Island from reaching the Kona district, so afternoon clouds and showers will develop over the Kona slopes and persist into the evening hours.

Aviation

As high pressure strengthens from the northeast, trade winds will be on the increase across the area. A limited amount of showery low clouds, with accompanying MVFR conditions, will mainly affect windward and mauka sections across the island chain.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, but AIRMET Tango may need to be issued later today as trade winds become more robust and the potential for low level turbulence S thru W of the mountain ranges increases.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will continue through the holiday weekend and early next week as high pressure builds to the north and the gradient remains tight over the region. The Small Craft Advisory in effect for the windier waters around the Big Island and Maui may need to be expanded to other areas late Friday through Saturday. Seas will become rough over the channels this weekend, likely nearing the 10 ft advisory threshold.
A south-southwest swell that filled in Wednesday will continue to generate near advisory-level surf (8 ft faces) today. Latest nearshore PacIOOS buoy readings reflect this early this morning holding within the 14-16 sec bands. A downward trend is expected Friday into the weekend.
The active trend will continue along south facing shores early next week as the largest swell of the season arrives. The archived surface analyses and satellite retrievals showed a large area of storm-force winds with seas estimated just above 40 ft within Hawaii’s swell window southeast of New Zealand as a 963 mb low passed through a few days ago. WAVEWATCH III has this source peaking at the Pago Pago PacIOOS buoy Friday night, which should correspond to a peak locally late Monday through Tuesday well above advisory levels. Forerunners should begin to move through Sunday night, then build all day Monday. This should be a long- lived event that holds through midweek before easing late next week.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will trend up Friday through Saturday as a small, northwest swell arrives from a gale centered near the Date Line over the Aleutian Islands (Typhoon Champi recurved and became absorbed into the Aleutian low). Otherwise, summertime conditions are anticipated.
Surf along east facing shores will slowly trend up and become rough over the weekend as the trades strengthen locally and upstream.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Friday for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov