Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 75. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will begin decreasing today, leading to reduced windward shower coverage and the potential for sea breezes and more interior clouds by early next week.

Discussion

There is little to no change in forecast philosophy from last evening. An upper low northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands will slowly meander west-southwestward through early next week. Induced surface troughing beneath the upper low will drift west southwest with the upper feature over the next few days. Rather dry and stable air persists over the islands this morning and windward shower coverage will be on the decline today.
As the surface trough approaches the islands, trade winds will decrease, allowing development of local land and sea breezes. For Sunday through Tuesday, expect a modified sea breeze regime, with afternoon clouds and a few showers over the most sheltered locales. If trade flow weakens more than forecast, a pure sea breeze pattern may manifest Monday and/or Tuesday, leading to greater afternoon and evening coverage of inland clouds and showers. Models show the possibility of increased instability over the western end of the state by the middle of next week as colder air moves in aloft.

Aviation

High pressure far north of the islands will sustain mainly moderate trade winds across the region through much of the day, with a weakening in the trade flow beginning later today into tonight. Most of the lower cloudiness and showers riding on the trades will affect windward and mauka sections across the state from time to time, but conditions overall will be VFR.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated in the immediate future.

Marine

A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep the region in a moderate trade wind pattern today. An upper level disturbance continues to move in north of the islands. A developing surface trough under this upper level system will produce light winds across the region later this evening into Wednesday. Light background easterly winds will prevail with local scale land and sea breezes near the islands.
A new small south swell will build today, peaking later this afternoon, then lower slowly into early next week. Background southerly swells will then produce smaller surf through much of this week.
Surf will continue to diminish along east facing shores as the trade winds weaken through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will gradually increase later this week as trade winds strengthen. No other significant swells are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov