Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds and humid conditions will continue today, with clouds and showers favoring interior and leeward areas through the afternoon hours. Breezy trade wind conditions will return tonight through the second half of the week, shifting clouds and showers back to the typical windward and mauka locations. Trades may ease late in the weekend through early next week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

The land and sea breeze regime with a light east to southeast background flow in place will continue today as an upper low and surface trough continue westward and away from the region. This combined with a slug of moisture clipping the islands from east to west will support humid conditions today, along with another round of afternoon showers where sea breezes develop. Recent satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) data reflected this area of higher moisture (2″ PWs) lurking south of the Big Island this morning.
Near-term guidance remains consistent and depicts a drying trend through the second half of the week as upper heights rise and the surface ridge builds to the north. Breezy trades combined with lowering dewpoints will be the result. Clouds and showers will shift back to the typical windward and mauka locations, with the best coverage overnight though the morning periods as pockets of moisture move through.
The long-term guidance depicts the pressure gradient loosening once again late in the weekend and into early next week as an upper low moves in and a weakness forms in the subtropical ridge to the north. If this materializes, trades will become disrupted with another land and sea breeze pattern setting up.

Aviation

Trade winds will return later today with localized sea breezes lingering along western terrain sheltered slopes. Convergence boundaries between the trade winds and daytime sea breezes will produce showers over leeward areas. Otherwise the returning trade wind regime will shift cloud and shower activity back to windward and mountain areas favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Brief MVFR is possible with shower activity.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

The weak trough north of the islands that has recently disrupted trade flow and introduced several days of light winds will be moving west of the area through the day. This will allow high pressure centered far northeast of the state to assert more of an influence through late week. The tighter pressure gradient produced from this high will reawaken more areawide moderate to locally strong trade winds from early Thursday into the Labor Day Weekend. Trades will likely be strong enough over the typically windier areas surrounding Maui County and south of Big Island Thursday to warrant a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). Trades are expected to further strengthen on Friday which could support the expansion of the SCA.
A very small, medium period south swell will be reinforced by small, slightly longer period south and low period southeast swells the next several days. These swells will lift and maintain seasonal south facing shore surf late this week. Strengthened trades over and upstream of the chain will bring in a higher wind wave east swell. This will build east facing shore surf to near normal levels from Thursday through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov