Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 87. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trade winds today will lead to afternoon sea breezes with some clouds and shower development over the interior of the islands. Trade winds are expected to return overnight through Friday. An increase in moisture over the southern end of the state tonight and tomorrow will boost rainfall there, particularly over windward Big Island and east Maui. The remainder of the state will remain on the drier side with some scattered shower through the end of the week.

Discussion

In the short term have trended PoPs and associated grids downward for this morning based on the latest satellite and radar data showing conditions drier than originally in the forecast. Winds have been light enough overnight for land breezes to set up, and we do expect afternoon sea breezes under the light wind flow. As a result, still expecting to see some clouds and showers over the interior and lee areas of the islands later today.
The ridge to the north of the islands will begin to lift to the north tonight, which will allow the trade winds to build back in across the region. An upper level low remains to the northeast of the Big Island, with an upper level trough extending back towards the Big Island. High clouds continue to stream to the northeast on the east side of the upper level trough, but overnight these clouds have shifted to the east just a bit and have largely cleared the Big Island.
The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo both continue to show precipitable water (PW) values around 1 inch, which is below normal for November. This corresponds well with various satellite derived PW, which show an area of higher PW to the southeast of the Big Island. The models show this increase in moisture reaching the southern end of the state later today and into tonight, with the eastern side of the Big Island seeing the highest values. Expect an uptick in shower activity over the windward side of the Big Island and to a lesser extent over east Maui. Have gone ahead and put the chance for locally heavy rainfall into the grids for east Big Island starting Thanksgiving morning, and ended up continuing to carry that through the day. While the possibility exists for locally heavy rainfall, not expecting any widespread issues. Have also boosted rainfall totals windward Big Island and east Maui during these times.
The airmass dries out a bit for Friday, so expect fewer trade wind showers then. Heading into the weekend, a front approaching the islands from the northwest will have some impacts on the islands, many still to be determined. The general trend in the models is that the front will die out as it approaches the islands, but will still bring moisture to the islands from the north. The trend in the GFS is to maintain a trade wind pattern, while the ECMWF is still holding on to some lighter winds. Have trended the winds Saturday and Sunday towards the GFS solution. Have trended the PoPs and associated fields towards a blend of the models as there is pretty good agreement with the increase in moisture from the north. At this time, a more typical moderate trade wind pattern returns early next week.

Aviation

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will give way to localized land and sea breeze conditions. Although brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in and around passing showers can’t be ruled out today, VFR conditions will prevail. Shower coverage could begin to trend up for windward areas of Maui and the Big Island later today through Thursday as an area of moisture begins to move into the area from the east.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for the Big Island between FL280 and FL400 for tempo moderate turbulence. This will likely continue this morning before weakening later today.

Marine

Two weakening cold fronts approaching the northern offshore waters this week will keep the high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands in a weakened state through Saturday. Expect light to moderate trade winds to continue across the area through Saturday. On Sunday, high pressure will build into the region producing a slight increase in trade wind speeds lasting into early next week. Wind speeds over the next seven days will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds for all coastal waters and channels.
A larger northwest swell arrives today, gradually building through tonight, and peaking on Thanksgiving Day. Surfers will be thankful for near advisory level surf on Thursday along exposed north and west facing shores. This northwest swell energy will begin to decrease on Friday, before another pulse of northwest swell energy moves into the region and boosts surf heights on Saturday and Sunday. The northwest swell will show decreasing trends from Monday to Tuesday.
Very small surf heights are forecast along east facing shores with nearly flat conditions for south facing shores of all islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov