Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 65. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 59. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 57 to 62. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 61. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 52 to 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light and variable winds are expected through much of the week as a series of fronts pass north of the islands. Moisture associated with the tail-end of the fronts clipping the western end of the state as they move into the area will support better shower chances, especially over interior and mauka locations through the afternoon and early evening hours when sea breezes form. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with minimal rainfall.

Discussion

Guidance remains persistent and advertises the active pattern holding over the northern Pacific, featuring a series of cold fronts passing the area to the north. The subtropical ridge has responded and shifted southward over the islands, which supports the ongoing land and sea breeze regime remaining in place through much of next week. Although the bulk of the weather associated with these passing systems will remain north of the islands, some moisture clipping the western end of the state along the tail-end of the passing fronts may act to trigger or enhance afternoon showers over interior and mauka locations when the sea breezes form. For the overnight and early morning periods, clouds and showers will tend to favor areas near the coasts and across our adjacent coastal waters.
The first front in the series moved into the area Saturday and diminished into a weak trough near Kauai. Satellite-derived PWs reflect this and depict a residual moisture axis extending southwest through the western end of the state with values near 1.5″ – which supports the ongoing showers around Kauai and over the Kauai Channel this morning. Guidance suggests this moisture axis diminishing with a gradual drying trend today through tonight. A similar scenario is expected Tuesday through Wednesday as the next front moves into the area, then again by next weekend.

Aviation

The latest radar and satellite trends continue to show limited shower activity across the state, with most returns confined to convergent flow regions between islands this morning. Only isolated showers are expected in the vicinity of TAF sites through the remainder of the morning, as weak high pressure and land breeze formation dominate the region. Additionally, satellite data continues to show a layer of upper clouds this morning, drifting across the northern reaches of the state.
This afternoon, the weak wind pattern continues, allowing for diurnal sea breeze clouds and showers for interior sections and along slopes. Land breeze development during the evening will help diminish afternoon showers and clouds. Mainly VFR conditions are expected again today with some MVFR cigs possible in developing in heavier showers.
Currently no AIRMETs are in effect. Earlier concerns of a potential need for tempo mod upper lvl turb, have lessened as guidance continues to show the area of greatest concern becoming focused east of the region. However, some light upper lvl turb can still be expected for parts of the inter-island air routes out to 40nm through this morning.

Marine

The surface ridge near the Hawaiian Islands will remain weak through the forecast period. Light to moderate winds will continue this week as another cold front approaches the area from the northwest direction on Tuesday. These lighter large scale winds will allow land and sea breezes to develop in the near- shore waters around each island.
The current west-northwest swell holding 2 to 3 feet above forecast guidance at the Hanalei buoy this morning. The delayed arrival of this swell by roughly 6 to 12 hours will also delay the departure. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) for exposed north and west facing shorelines was extended in time until this evening. This swell energy will slowly decrease in height over the next 24 hours, likely falling below advisory thresholds by early Monday morning. The next west-northwest swell will move into the region early Tuesday, building surf heights along north and west facing shores back up to HSA levels by Tuesday night. This swell energy will peak on Wednesday night and then fall below HSA thresholds on Thursday. Long range guidance continues to show a much larger west-northwest swell arriving by Friday, easily reaching HSA levels and potentially exceeding High Surf Warning thresholds by Saturday if the current wave model trends hold. Stay tuned.
Elevated seas will periodically reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for exposed coastal waters and channels through the week as large swells move through the area. A SCA remains in effect for exposed waters surrounding Niihau and Kauai; including windward waters and channels near Oahu, Molokai and Maui until this evening.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov