Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 81. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 61 to 69. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 84. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 81. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 66. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds.

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 61. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 69. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light and variable winds and mostly dry weather will prevail for most of this week. A land and sea breeze regime will dominate, featuring mostly cool and clear nights and mornings, while afternoon and evening clouds will deliver just a few spotty showers. Light to moderate trade winds may return by next weekend.

Discussion

Light winds and mostly stable weather will prevail this week, as ridging at the surface and aloft persist over the area. Nighttime land breezes will lead to mostly clear and cool nights and mornings, while late morning sea breezes will persist through the early evening. Any rainfall that occurs will be most likely during the afternoon and evening hours as the converging sea breezes drive the formation of clouds over interior and upslope areas.
A surface ridge extending from a high to the distant NE will remain over and/or near the islands through the week. While there may be subtle day-to-day fluctuations in the position of the ridge that may modulate the low-level wind flow, light and variable winds are generally expected over most land areas. The light winds will favor a SE-S direction on the large scale, with light to moderate E-SE winds anticipated Wednesday as the ridge briefly drifts to a position just N of Kauai. The ridge may move sufficiently N to support a light to moderate trade wind flow near the Big Island, but island-scale sea/land breezes are still likely to override the trade flow.
A mid-level ridge extending over the islands from a high centered in the tropical W Pacific will prevail, keeping rainfall limited in area and intensity. The ridge may be briefly “dented” by a relatively weak short wave Tuesday night and Wednesday, which could allow afternoon sea breeze convection to gain a little vigor. A weak front approaching from the NW toward the end of the week is expected to have little in the way of support aloft as it potentially moves over the islands Friday and Saturday. High pressure passing N of the islands may bring light to moderate trade winds next weekend, with the remnant frontal moisture potentially fueling a few windward showers.

Aviation

The latest sfc obs, satellite and radar continue to show only isolated low/middle lvl clds and spotty showers in the vicinity of the state early this morning. High pressure ridge in place and weakly organized surface wind pattern, will continue to reinforce diurnal sea and land breeze circulations through the TAF period. This pattern will allow for sea breeze cloud and shower development for interior sections and along slopes again this afternoon, with timing and location of clouds and showers this afternoon similar to the past 24hrs. The transition to land breeze development during the evening will help diminish showers and clouds.
Overall, expect mainly VFR conditions to continue through tonight, however some MVFR cigs remain possible again this afternoon in heavier showers.
Currently no AIRMETs are in effect, or expected through tonight.

Marine

A weak surface ridge in the vicinity of Kauai is keeping relatively light winds across most of the island chain early this morning. A series of fronts moving down from the northwest will likely keep the surface ridge near the state this week, although the position of the ridge may oscillate slightly from day to day. The background flow near the western end of the island will remain light and variable through Friday. Expect light to moderate east to southeast winds to develop over some windward waters starting late Tuesday or Wednesday.
The current northwest swell continues to subside early this morning. The PaciOOs buoy at Hanalei near the north shore of Kauai shows the swell height is a foot or two above the guidance. However, the wave period has dropped below 12 seconds. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been cancelled for north and west facing shores of the islands this morning. There may still be some lingering larger sets around daybreak, but the surf should steadily drop through this evening. The forecast guidance continues to indicate the next reinforcing northwest swell will initially arrive early Tuesday, and then gradually build through Tuesday night before peaking early Wednesday. Surf produced by this swell is expected to reach the HSA criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands late Tuesday and Wednesday. Note that this swell has a more westerly direction, so it may also produce surf near the HSA criteria along exposed west facing shores of the Big Island from Tuesday night through Wednesday. In addition, seas may eventually reach the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria of 10 feet on Wednesday over some of the coastal waters near Kauai.
The northwest swell will gradually lower Thursday before the initial forerunners from a much larger northwest swell are forecast to arrive early Friday morning. This swell is expected to rise rapidly, with resulting surf well above the High Surf Warning (HSW) thresholds along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands starting early Friday. A HSA will likely be required for west facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, with a HSW possible there starting Friday night. In addition, expect SCA conditions due to elevated seas over coastal waters exposed to this large northwest swell from Friday into next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov