Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 83. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 61. North winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 20 mph in the evening becoming light.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 64. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A series of fronts will approach and stall northwest of the islands through the remainder of the work week, causing trade wind speeds to fluctuate between light and moderate speeds. The fronts will remain far enough away from the islands however, to keep any significant rainfall away from the Aloha state. Any showers that we do see, will remain confined primarily to windward slopes and coasts, particularly during nights and mornings. A more typical showery trade wind pattern is expected to return over the weekend, with trades strengthening to moderate and breezy levels.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weak 1018 mb high is centered is around 400 miles north-northwest of Kauai, while a strong 1039 mb high is centered around 1950 miles northeast of Honolulu. A ridge axis extends southwestward from the stronger high to a position a near Kauai. Light and variable winds are present over the Garden Isle, with light to moderate trade winds over the remainder of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies over Kauai and Oahu, with mostly cloudy conditions over Maui County and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered light showers moving into windward areas from Oahu eastward to the Big Island, with very little shower activity elsewhere. Main short term focus remains on small deviations in trade wind strength and rain chances through the remainder of the week.
A weak high will build eastward well to the north of the islands today, allowing the trade winds to strengthen and reach moderate speeds statewide this afternoon. A series of fronts will then approach and stall out northwest of the islands through the remainder of the work week, bringing small fluctuations in trade wind strength. Light to moderate trades will prevail during this time, but the winds will likely be light enough to allow for some localized sea breeze development in some of the more sheltered areas Wednesday and Friday. The surface ridge will lift further north this weekend into early next week, allowing moderate to breezy trade winds to return to the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, drier than normal weather is expected through the remainder of the work week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings. A return to a more normal showery trade wind pattern is expected this weekend through early next week.
H7 winds have dropped considerably over the Haleakala Summit following the passage of a mid-level trough earlier this morning, so the Wind Advisory here has been cancelled. H6 winds remain elevated over the Big Island summits however, and should remain at or near advisory levels through much of the day. As a result, the Wind Advisory continues here through 6 PM this evening.

Aviation

The surface ridge will build north of the region today, producing a return to moderate trade winds. Sea breezes will linger over terrain sheltered western slopes of some islands this afternoon. An upper level ridge will build over the region from west to east over the next 24 hours, keeping weather conditions fairly stable for most areas. Brief periods of showers are still possible as these trade winds return, mainly along the windward and mountain slopes. Clouds and brief showers will favor the overnight to early morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail over most airfields in the state.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across the region for Tempo MOD TURB between FL180 AND FL330, with these conditions expected to continue today.
Additionally, tempo light icing conditions will continue across the islands, in a layer between FL180-FL240, as a band of mid and upper level moisture pushes eastward across the state. These conditions will diminish later this morning.

Marine

High pressure will build north of the area today, supporting a brief return of moderate to fresh easterly trades. Light winds will return through the second half of the week as a weak surface trough moves in from the east and a front passes to the north. Fresh to strong easterly trades are anticipated beginning Saturday or Sunday.
A west northwest swell arriving this morning is expected to generate advisory-level surf along exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands by this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is now in effect for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through 6 am HST Wednesday morning. This west northwest swell will be large enough to push combined seas to the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold across waters around Kauai, prompting issuance of an SCA for these waters through this afternoon. A reinforcing west northwest swell, expected Thursday night into Friday, will support near advisory- level surf. A third swell, expected Friday night into Saturday, will likely hit the advisory mark through the day Saturday, then lower on Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through most of this week. An increase is expected late this week as a small northeast pulse arrives and as the trade winds strengthen over the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will return to background levels with only minimal energy expected over the next several days. A small, south- southwest swell may arrive toward the end of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov