Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 66. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 88. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through the middle of the week, with a slight easing possible late in the week into next weekend. A typical rainfall pattern will focus rainfall along windward areas, with a few showers reaching leeward sections of the smaller islands at times. Meanwhile leeward portions of the Big Island will see a few showers each afternoon and during the overnight hours.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1032 mb high is centered around 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions across much of the state, with a bit more cloud cover over windward sections of the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
High pressure northeast of the state will strengthen slightly during the next couple days and remain nearly stationary to the northeast of the island chain through mid week. This will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place across the state. The high will begin to weaken and lift northeastward and further away from the region through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend, while a new building high builds to the north of the island chain. Moderate to locally breezy trades appear to hold on through at least Thursday, with the latest model trends suggesting there may only be a subtle easing of the trades Friday through the weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, very typical June weather will prevail, with bands of showery low clouds moving through the islands at times. Showers will be most prevalent in windward areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas of the smaller islands from time to time. A few showers will affect leeward Big Island each day as well, mainly in the afternoon and overnight hours.

Aviation

A high pressure system far northeast of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast through Tuesday. A band of unstable clouds currently just east of the island chain will bring additional clouds and showers mainly into windward and mountain areas today. Expect periods of showers over windward sections of each island through Tuesday morning as this band slowly passes through the state. This cloud band may also bring brief showers into typically drier leeward areas today and tonight.
An AIRMET for mountain obscurations was issued this morning for windward sections of the Big Island and Maui. Brief MVFR conditions and showers will spread westward to windward sections of the smaller islands later today.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will continue through midweek, then potentially ease to moderate to fresh levels by Friday as the ridge weakens. The Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier areas around Maui County and Big Island remains has been extended through Tuesday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up through the first half of the week as overlapping southwest to south-southwest swells roll through. The one arriving later today should peak by Tuesday night, hold through midweek, then ease through the second half of the week. Plenty of action currently east-southeast of New Zealand will translate to another run of above average surf to end the month. This source should arrive by the end of next weekend out of the south.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores came up over the weekend and is running a little higher at select spots than predicted. Early morning buoy observations support this trend continuing through the morning hours, before easing this afternoon through Tuesday. After this moves out, a return of summer time conditions is expected up north.
Surf along east facing shores will small and choppy each day as the trades hold. Guidance does depict a small to moderate northeast swell moving through next weekend from a batch of strong northeast winds off the west coast.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov