Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 68. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 86. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will likely ease Friday and Saturday then rebuild Sunday into early next week. A band of enhanced moisture will move through the islands late this afternoon into early Wednesday, bringing an increase in showers to windward areas and sending a few more showers into leeward locales. Otherwise, typical trade wind weather will prevail with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, along with the occasional brief shower spilling into leeward communities.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1035 mb high is centered around 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows the cloud band which moved through the islands yesterday afternoon and evening has exited southwest of the state, leaving mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions aside from a few sprinkles in leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
A rather typical June weather pattern will persist through the first week of summer. Surface high pressure anchored far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds into Thursday. The trades will likely drop a notch Friday and Saturday as the surface high weakens, and building high pressure north of the state should lead to strengthening trade winds Sunday into early next week. Trades will continue to focus clouds and modest showers over windward slopes through the week, though small pockets of enhanced moisture will periodically boost rainfall. One area of moisture is expected to move through the islands late this afternoon into early Wednesday, bringing an increase in showers to windward areas and sending a few more showers into leeward locales. Otherwise, showers will largely be confined to windward areas through early next week, with a few showers briefly spreading to parched leeward areas from Maui to Kauai, while scattered showers can be expected each afternoon and evening over leeward sections of the Big Island.

Aviation

A high pressure system far northeast of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast through Wednesday. Expect brief passing showers mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Mostly VFR conditions are expected with brief MVFR ceilings over windward airfields.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue through midweek, then potentially ease to moderate to fresh levels by Friday as the ridge weakens. The Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier areas around Maui County and Big Island remains in effect through this afternoon. This may need to be extended into Wednesday later today depending on observations and trends.
Surf along south facing shores will build through the day as a fresh south-southwest swell continues to fill in. This swell is expected to peak later today through Wednesday, then slowly ease through the second half of the week. Offshore buoys reflect an upward trend this morning with the peak energy centered around the 17 and 19 second bands. For the extended, plenty of action east- southeast of New Zealand will translate to another run of above average surf toward the end the month, beginning late this weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will return to our typical summer levels today as the north-northwest swell moves out.
Surf along east facing shores will be small and choppy each day as the trades hold. Guidance does depict a small to moderate northeast swell moving through next weekend from a batch of strong northeast winds forecast off the west coast.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov