Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Thursday, then ease Friday into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward the mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. A return of breezy trades is expected early next week.

Discussion

Early morning satellite and radar data showed a decent sized area of patchy low clouds and showers moving through our windward areas. Although most of this activity will continue to focus over windward and mountain locations, some showers will make it into our dry leeward spots of the smaller islands through the morning hours today (trade wind inversion floating around 8000-9000 ft). Drier air lurking upstream should arrive later today, which will translate to a return of a typical summer pattern (dry) for the islands.
Trades are forecast to ease Friday into the weekend as the ridge weakens to the north – potentially enough for localized land/sea breezes to form in sheltered locations. Showers will be sparse, mostly focusing over windward and mountain locations overnight through the mornings as pockets of low-level moisture move through. Breezy trades are forecast to return early next week as the ridge strengthens to the north.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the TAF period, with showers concentrated mainly across windward sections and in channels between islands through tonight. Satellite data continues to show an area of lower/mid level clouds expanding in areal coverage across windward areas of the islands this morning, as a band of moisture from the east moves beneath a weak trade wind inversion. Current surface obs continue to show some MVRF cigs drifting across the islands this morning, associated with the cloud deck, however expect clouds to breakup some later this today as afternoon mixing develops. Overall, expect some MVFR cigs will continue across mainly windward areas, generating the continued potential need for AIRMET Sierra due to tempo mountain obscurations. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conds across most TAF locations through tonight.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate to fresh trade winds in place through Thursday. The trades will be locally strong over the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island at times, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for these areas through 6 PM today. The trades will ease a bit Friday through the weekend, then strengthen to fresh to strong levels early next week as a new high builds north of the island chain.
South shore surf will hold above the summertime average today, with a slow and gradual decline expected Thursday through Saturday. A series of new long-period south swells will elevated south shore surf above the summertime average again Sunday through the middle of next week.
North shore surf will remain flat through the next 7 days.
Steady trade wind swell will keep east shore surf below normal through the next 7 days. A small northeast swell will also move through the islands late Friday through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov