Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 92. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 60 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will slowly drift eastward, allowing locally strong trade winds to weaken through the remainder of the week. Clouds and limited showers will favor windward slopes through tonight. Showers will then expand in areal coverage through the remainder of the work week, as an upper trough moves north of the region.

Discussion

The area of high pressure well north of the islands will maintain the locally strong easterly trades anchored across the region into Wednesday. This area of high pressure will slowly drift eastward through the reminder of the work week, relaxing the gradient and allowing the currently stronger trades to begin to weaken into the weekend.
Current satellite trends continue to show a broken layer of shallow low level moisture flowing into the state from the northeast, maintaining partly to mostly cloudy conditions across windward locations. This area of lower clouds will continue to maneuver across the islands this morning underneath a sharp low level trade wind inversion, before diminishing some later this afternoon. Radar trends and surface obs continue to show mainly isolated showers focused along windward locations this morning. These showers are expected to diminish in coverage again this afternoon in the typical diurnal trade wind pattern, though remaining across favored windward areas and in channel between islands. Rainfall amounts and rates will be limited again through tonight, as the airmass remains stable with an upper ridge in place and depth of moisture remains shallow.
Otherwise, showers are then expected to increase in areal coverage, mainly along windward areas Wednesday through Friday, as a weakly organized upper trough drifts north the state from east to west. This combined with the increasing trade wind inversion heights may also allow some showers to affect the drier leeward areas Thursday and Friday.
By the weekend, drier and more stable conditions filter back across the islands and limit showers and clouds to mainly windward locations into the beginning of next week.

Aviation

Gusty easterly trade winds will continue today, with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mauka locations. The broken to overcast low-level cloud deck (shallow) that has been impacting most windward areas through much of the night has begun to break up early this morning. If this trend continues, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be cancelled.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands today.

Marine

The High Surf Warning for south facing shores has been downgraded to a High Surf Advisory (HSA) as the current south swell continues to slowly subside through today. The HSA may need to be extended through tonight if offshore buoys remain elevated through the day. Surf is expected to drop below the HSA threshold of 10 feet for the south- facing shores on Wednesday. No additional south swells are expected for the Thursday through Saturday time frame. A small, long period south swell is possible late this weekend into early next week.
East-facing shores will continue to see elevated short period choppy surf through today and may drop a notch tomorrow as trades weaken slightly. Models are indicating that a small, long period east swell from tropical cyclone Estelle, located in the far eastern Pacific, may provide a slight boost in surf for east facing shores late this week into the weekend. No other significant swells are expected.
High pressure to the far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trades through today. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the typically windier waters around the Big Island and Maui through Wednesday afternoon. The high is expected to weaken slightly and shift to the far northeast later this week, resulting in weaker trades and the possibility of dropping the SCA.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov