Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 87 to 92. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 71. Northeast winds up to 30 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 74 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Thursday as a weak low or surface trough slides by to the south of the state. The trades will ease back to moderate and locally breezy levels Friday through the weekend, and perhaps ease even further early next week. Fairly dry trade wind weather will prevail during the next 7 days, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas mainly at night and during the early morning hours. A stray shower may reach leeward areas at times, but most areas should remain dry.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1700 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, while a broad trough of low pressure is located around 450 miles south of the Big Island. The resulting gradient is producing breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a stray shower or perhaps a few sprinkles making the trip over the mountains and into leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around trade winds trends and rain chances.
High pressure to the distant north-northeast will shift southward and closer to the islands during the next couple days, while a weak area of low pressure, or surface trough, slides by around 300-400 miles south of the state. This will keep breezy to locally windy conditions in place through Thursday, with a peak in trade wind speeds expected today. With a sharp low level inversion in place around 5-6 kft today, we will likely see advisory level winds across portions of Maui County and the Big Island due to effective funneling and channeling of winds by the island terrain. As a result, a Wind Advisory is now in effect through 10 pm this evening. The trades should lower into the moderate and locally breezy range on Friday, then hold at these levels through the weekend. A weakness developing in the ridge north of the islands could ease the trades further early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, a fairly dry trade wind pattern should prevail through the forecast period. Showers will focus primarily over windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours. A stray shower may occasionally drift into leeward areas, although most areas will remain dry. There remains the potential for a slight increase in showers over the Big Island Wednesday night and Thursday as the weak low or surface trough slides by to the south, but guidance remains in good agreement keeping the deepest moisture associated with this feature south of the state.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue over the islands through the TAF period, as an area of high pressure remains anchored well north-northeast of the state. Limited moisture will generate mainly VFR conditions through early Thursday, with showers affecting mainly windward and mauka sections. Some MVFR cigs will occasionally drift across windward areas this morning, continuing the potential need for AIRMET Sierra due to tempo mountain obscurations for some windward areas, especially the Big Island and Maui.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains due to windy trades. These turbulent conditions will continue across the islands through tonight.

Marine

The islands are sandwiched between a strong surface high pressure system located far north-northeast of the area, and an elongated surface trough located well to the south. This is producing strong trade winds, especially over the eastern half of the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all of the waters surrounding the islands of Maui County and the Big Island, as well the waters south of Oahu through early Thursday morning. The current forecast keeps SCA conditions in the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Thursday through Friday. The SCA may need to be extended into this weekend for these same windier waters.
The strong trades will cause the short-period wind waves to increase during the next couple of days. Therefore, expect choppy surf to peak near, or slightly above the seasonal average along east facing shores through Thursday. Surf heights may trend down along east facing shores as the trade winds ease to moderate speeds this weekend. A very small, long-period south swell, and a small, short-period southeast swell will continue to produce modest surf along south facing shores through Thursday. Another small, medium-period south swell may arrive Saturday, which would maintain small surf along south facing shores this weekend. Elsewhere, expect nearly flat conditions to persist along most north facing shores through this weekend.
Monthly high tides are expected to peak during the next couple of days, with the maximum astronomical high tides occurring during the afternoon hours. Tide station observations are showing close to the predicted water levels for most stations around Hawaii. We do not plan to issue a Coastal Flood Statement at this time, since the guidance indicates the water level values will likely remain just below the significant impact levels.

Fire weather

Strong trade winds and low relative humidity values will result in elevated fire danger today. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM. Outdoor burning should be avoided.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Oahu South Shore, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Molokai Leeward, Lanai Makai, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley, Leeward Haleakala, Kona, South Big Island, Kohala.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov