Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 77. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northwest winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 67. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy east southeast winds will continue through the weekend, with downstream blocking of the winds occurring at times by the Big Island and Maui. The bulk of shower activity will focus over windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, through incoming showers could impact any island the next several days. An upper low northeast of the Big Island could provide some shower enhancement through tonight. Winds will back to the trade wind direction by Sunday.

Discussion

A nearly stationary 1035 mb surface high is centered far northeast of Hawaii while a slow moving cold front is located to the west near the International Dateline. The high is driving fresh to strong trade winds upstream, but veer slightly east southeast over the state. Meanwhile, a weak upper low is about 200 miles north of the state which is creating some instability across the state and will act to enhance cloud heights and showers today and tonight.
Radar and infrared satellite shows low clouds with numerous moderate to heavy showers windward and southeast portions/waters of the Big Island and Maui. Scattered showers persist across the other islands. Expect this trend to continue through the morning, with leeward sides of Maui and the Big Island seeing more showers by afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms has also been added to the forecast for the Big Island today.
The east-southeast flow and terrain effects will greatly influence wind speed and shower coverage across the state through the weekend as the front slowly approaches. Blockage from the Big Island will somewhat dampen the strong winds across the smaller islands, resulting in some windward/northern shores being breezy while other, mostly leeward areas, seeing moderate or even gentle winds at times over the next several days. The bulk of rainfall is likely to occur over exposed windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui through Saturday. The rest of the state will be in the shadow of both islands, which is likely to reduce the overall amount of rainfall expected. That said, showers could just slide over one of the other islands with a slight shift in wind direction. By Sunday, the front to the west will stall and begin to weaken while winds across the state return to a more easterly direction into early next week.

Aviation

High pressure far NE of the islands will produce moderate to locally breezy E to ESE trade winds into Friday. A broad trough aloft just N of the islands is destabilizing the atmosphere, and overnight soundings indicate a moist and unstable profile capable of supporting heavy showers, and quite possibly a thunderstorm. Areas of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA will be possible, mainly over windward slopes, but could pop up nearly anywhere, with the potential for isolated IFR VIS/CIG in +SHRA/+TSRA.
AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is posted for windward Big Island, and may remain in place through the day. With the increasing E winds, AIRMET Tango may be required for low-level turbulence for areas SW through NW of the mountains.

Marine

With robust high pressure remaining far north and northeast of the area and a front approaching from the northwest, east to east- southeast winds will be moderate to fresh, and locally strong, over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues in effect for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. More windward zones will likely be added later today or tonight as wind speeds are expected to marginally increase into the weekend.
The current small north-northwest swell will continue to fade. Another small pulse from the northwest is expected Friday. Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise through the end of the week due to the strengthening winds, likely peaking Friday into Saturday, then gradually decrease into early next week. Surf along south facing shores will remain above average through the end of the week, with a reinforcing south swell peaking later today into Friday just below advisory level, then gradually lowering beginning Friday night. South shore surf will drop back down to background levels by early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov