Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 82. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 70. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. South winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 43 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 43 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68 to 76. West winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 60. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68 to 76. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 53 to 69. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 84. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Westerly winds will continue to decrease today as our airmass dries and stabilizes. Expect light winds and limited showers into the weekend. A weak front approaching from the northwest may increase showers near Kauai Friday and Saturday.

Discussion

The pressure gradient across the islands slackened overnight after the passage of a robust cold front and its supporting upper trough Monday through early Tuesday, resulting in light winds this morning along with a drying and stabilizing trend. The High Wind Warning for the Big Island Summits will be downgraded to a Wind Advisory as post-frontal westerly winds are decreasing there as well. Radar shows very little shower activity across the islands, with the bulk of remaining activity contained in a ragged area associated with a weak trough over and around Kauai.
Expect dry and stable conditions statewide today. Limited moisture will keep cloud cover and rainfall to a minimum this morning. Models show moisture associated with the weak trough near Kauai increasing showers slightly there through today. Lighter winds will allow development of diurnal land and sea breeze circulations, especially over the central smaller islands eastward to the Big Island, through Friday. Southwest winds near Kauai may be just strong enough to limit land and sea breeze flow there. The chance for showers increases near Kauai again on Friday as a weak front approaches from the northwest. However, overall, expect very limited shower activity across the entire state through the end of the week as dry and stable conditions remain anchored over the region.
Models show winds will increase slightly Saturday. However, with a weak front lingering just north of the area, the surface pressure gradient will remain rather slack into early next week. Forecast light winds will allow for another period of land and sea breeze circulations into the beginning of next week. A ridge forecast to slowly strengthen north of the islands by the middle of next week could return a trade wind weather pattern to the state.

Aviation

Early morning satellite and radar imagery depict mostly dry conditions and relatively few clouds across the state. Fairly dry and stable conditions are expected today, with the exception of Kauai and possibly Oahu later this morning as a weak trough supports slightly more clouds and showers. Some of these showers could produce brief MVFR ceilings, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most locations throughout the next 24 hours. Surface winds will remain light throughout the next 24 hours.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated through tonight.

Marine

A low pressure system far north of the islands will drift northward away from the region over the next 24 hours. Westerly winds will diminish this morning. A weak high pressure ridge will settle in over the Hawaii region over the next few days with two cold fronts passing by north of the state. This pressure pattern will produce light to fresh breezes with shifting wind directions each day into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening for all Hawaiian waters except for Maalaea Bay, due to the high seas from the declining northwest swell.
The current northwest (310-320 degree) swell will quickly decline today through Thursday. A High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in effect this morning for most north and west facing shores, however we may transition to a High Surf Advisory for these areas by this afternoon as swell heights may fall below warning thresholds later today. This swell will continue to trend down statewide into Thursday, just as another northwest (310-320 direction) swell fills into the region. Surf heights with this next swell will approach HSW levels as open ocean swell heights peak near 12 feet from Friday to Saturday. Yet another medium period northwest (310-320 degree) swell will closely follow by Saturday night keeping surf heights elevated along north and west facing shores into early next week.
Small surf heights are expected along east and south facing shores through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov