Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze in the evening. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze in the evening. Lows 61 to 69. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Haze in the evening. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze in the evening. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Haze in the evening. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 59 to 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Haze in the evening. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze in the evening. Lows around 61. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Highs 66 to 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze in the evening. Lows 54 to 69. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 66 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An upper level ridge over the state will continue to produce dry and stable weather conditions with limited cloud cover today. Light background east to southeast winds will continue to develop this week. These light winds will continue to bring up volcanic emissions from Kilauea in the form of vog, affecting all Hawaiian Islands. Land and sea breezes will also develop over each island through most of the forecast period. A brief period of moderate easterly trade winds will blow in on Sunday, then light winds return from Monday morning onward. The pattern may shift by the end of next week with a trend towards more clouds and shower activity.

Discussion

A stable and dry weather pattern continues this morning with very stable and shallow stratocumulus clouds showing up in the regional satellite imagery. Local radar imagery also shows zero showers across the state. Upper air balloon observations in Hilo and Lihue continue to show trade wind temperature inversion heights in the 3,000 to 5,000 foot range over the past few days. This means cloud heights will be capped around the 4,000 to 6,000 foot range and any clouds that do develop will not grow deep enough for measurable shower activity. These highly stable conditions are due to strong subsidence (downward moving air) under an upper level ridge directly over the island chain. This upper ridge will linger into Wednesday of next week, where long range guidance hints at changes to the large scale weather pattern.
In addition to stable weather conditions, winds will also remain light with background east to southeast directions for most of the next seven days. Sunday will be the exception with a brief period of moderate easterly trade winds in the forecast as a surface high pressure center temporarily builds just north of the state. Light winds return from Monday morning onward. Land and sea breezes will develop over the islands each day. Southeasterly wind flow just above the surface will pull up sulfur emissions from the Kilauea Volcano, in the form of vog (Volcanic smOG) each day affecting all Hawaiian Islands for most of the next seven days. A brief decrease in vog will develop over the smaller islands from Maui to Kauai on Sunday as moderate easterly trade winds push the vog plume further westward. A slight increase in shower chances are forecast from Sunday onward.
Long range weather guidance continues to show the large scale weather pattern shifting from Wednesday onward. The upper level ridge transitions to an upper level trough as colder air moves closer to the Hawaii region with a series of cold fronts approaching the state from the northwest. This pattern shift will produce increasing clouds and showers under the influence of a more unstable upper level trough. Stay tuned.

Aviation

A strong ridge aloft will maintain dry and stable conditions with prevailing VFR today and tonight. Land and sea breezes will continue over each island for the next 12 to 18 hours, with moderate trade winds building into the state by early Sunday morning.

Marine

Surf is expected to return to High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels today and persist for most north and west facing shores through the weekend as another long period northwest swell (310 degrees) builds across the islands. Therefore, the HSA will remain in effect for most north and west facing shores through Sunday afternoon. The HSA may need to be extended if the swell lingers through Monday. Surf for east facing shores will remain small, except for some areas exposed to the declining north swell wrap today. A small south swell is expected this weekend. Current trends support surf heights remaining below HSA criteria early next week along all shores.
Surface high pressure centered northeast of the state will remain relatively stationary through the weekend, then lift northeast early next week. Light to moderate east to southeast winds will persist today, before increasing to locally breezy from the east Sunday as a ridge briefly strengthens north of the state. The ridge is expected to weaken as a front approaches the state during the first half of next week, for slightly weaker east to southeast winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov