Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80. Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 78. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 75 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 64. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 76. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Very strong winds. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 52 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southwest winds 20 to 50 mph. Gusts up to 75 mph increasing to 90 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Very strong winds. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Southwest winds 20 to 50 mph with gusts to 90 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and windy. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. West winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

East Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 75 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Cloudy with showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 76. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 75. West winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Cloudy with showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 78. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 66. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 77. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A front across the central islands will sweep eastward through tonight, bringing showers and windy conditions to the state. Winds will ease with drier and cooler conditions filtering into the islands Thursday through the weekend. Warmer weather will return early next week.

Discussion

A 100 mile wide band of broken to overcast low clouds, marking a frontal boundary, lies across Maui County this morning and is moving rapidly eastward. Radar shows the main shower band has moved east of Oahu at this hour. Additional showers within convergent prefrontal flow lie across Maui County, the Big Island, and surrounding waters.
West to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this morning and remain quite strong through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire state through midnight tonight, with gusty downslope winds in excess of 50 mph likely over the windward areas northeast of the mountains. The unusual wind direction and saturated soils will increase the potential for impacts like falling trees or landslides. On the summits of the Big Island, a High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 PM Sunday. On Haleakala summit, a High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 AM Thursday. Expect showery weather with frontal passage across the central islands through today. Showery weather will likely continue over the Big Island through tonight. Showers will mainly focus across leeward areas and diminish behind the front.
Winds will ease to moderate levels Thursday and become light Friday through early next week as a weak ridge slides eastward over the island chain. Drier conditions will encompass the entire state Thursday through Monday, allowing for noticeably cooler conditions. Dewpoints are expected drop into the 50s. Maximum high temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees, and lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation

A cold front currently near Maui county will continue its eastward progression through today and will supply the eastern end of the Island chain with widespread MVFR conditions. Some showers and clouds will continue behind the front for the western islands and gradually decrease through the day as cooler and drier air moves in. Winds will remain breezy to strong out of the west to southwest today.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo low level moderate turbulence along northeast sides of all islands due to the strong southwest winds.
AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for kauai, Oahu, and the south through west facing areas of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai.

Marine

A cold front is currently over the Kaiwi Channel early this morning. As the front continues down the rest of the island chain today, southwest to west winds will increase, driven mainly by the front's parent low, which will pass less than 500 nm north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Westerly winds will gradually ease Thursday and Friday, though seas will likely remain above the 10 foot SCA threshold into Friday for most areas due to a very large northwest swell. Gentle to locally moderate westerly winds are forecast for this weekend.
A very large northwest swell (310-320 degrees) will build through the day today, peak tonight, then slowly decline Thursday and Friday. The source storm will continue to advance southeastward at a very low latitude, with its captured fetch likely generating a swell in excess of 20 ft during the peak. Surf will exceed High Surf Warning levels along most north and west facing shores, including leeward Big Island, by this evening. In addition, the combination of large wind waves from the west and a mix of medium and longer period swell energy could lead to overwash of some coastal infrastructure and beach erosion, mainly this evening through Thursday morning along exposed north and west facing shores. The swell will decline and shift out of the north- northwest Friday through the weekend.
Minimal trade wind swell is expected this week, though there is some potential for localized wave wrap along east facing shores exposed to the large northwest swell late today into Friday. Rough surf may briefly increase along south facing shores as the front moves down the island chain through today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and lower elevations of Maui and the Big Island.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Haleakala Summit.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Thursday for Kona, Kohala.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov