Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 82. Southwest winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 81. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 65. South winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 59. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 70 to 80. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 51 to 63. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge just south of the islands and a cold frontal system passing just to the north of the state will keep Hawaii in a stable light to moderate southwesterly wind pattern through Tuesday. A prefrontal convergence band may increase showers near Kauai and Oahu by Tuesday night with a cold front stalling just northwest of Kauai enhancing showers over the Garden Isle from Wednesday to Thursday morning. A weak high pressure ridge builds back in over the eastern islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties from Thursday through Saturday. Expect stable and dry conditions and lighter winds to spread across the western islands by Thursday afternoon as the cold frontal system lifts northward.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning continues to show a convergent cloud band south and east of the Big Island, and a cold frontal system northwest of Kauai. Fairly stable light to moderate southwesterly winds are expected over the next few days. Strong winds over the Big Island Summits continue today due to stronger winds aloft, and a High Wind Warning remains in effect through the afternoon hours. Upper level wind speeds will decrease from later tonight into Monday as a subtropical jet stream moves farther away from the islands, and the high wind warnings for the summit zones will likely be cancelled by tonight. Another upper level jet stream associated with the cold front northwest of Kauai will produce some feathering high cirrus clouds over the western islands through the week, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
Southwesterly surface wind speeds are increasing as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. This cold front will stall out just northwest of Kauai from Wednesday to Thursday. Prefrontal convergence bands may increase cloud and shower coverage over Kauai and Oahu by Tuesday night with additional shower activity ramping up near Kauai from Wednesday into Thursday. Moderate rainfall accumulations are possible over Kauai during this time period.
A drier weather story will develop over the eastern Hawaiian Islands this week. A surface ridge will lift northward over the islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties this week. Drier conditions will remain in place with lighter winds forecast from Monday through Friday. Expect warm days and cool nights for these central and eastern islands.
The extended range forecast outlook shows the possibility of another cold front moving into the region with trade winds returning to the islands around March 20th.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate southwest flow will continue today and tonight, allowing for development of local land and sea breezes. In general, expect limited shower coverage across the islands as dry and stable conditions continue. Mainly VFR conditions will continue through Monday. However, localized MVFR ceilings are possible in showers across the Big Island fueled by a persistent band of low clouds.
A strong jetstream extends across the state, so we will continue the turbulence AIRMET Tango through this afternoon. No other AIRMETS are in effect or expected.

Marine

Southwest winds will increase into the moderate to fresh category today (highest Kauai and Oahu waters) as low pressure passes north of the area. Guidance shows the southwest winds dipping back into the light category tonight through Monday as this feature quickly advances eastward allowing the surface ridge to retreat northward back over the islands. A replay of this pattern with a return of moderate southwest winds is expected Tuesday through midweek as another low develops and tracks eastward, passing the islands to the north Wednesday. The front associated with this second feature may reach/near the western end of the state by Wednesday before it stalls and diminishes.
Surf along north and west facing shores will continue to ease today as a north-northwest swell moves out. Observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest reflect this trend with the spectral peak now centered around the 10 second band and swell height within this band down to around 3 ft. Guidance lines up well with the current pattern and depicts well below normal conditions continuing this week with mainly small background northwest and northeast energy moving through.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week due to the lack of trades locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. Only the wrap from the current north-northwest swell moving through today and from a small north-northeast swell expected to linger into the start of the week will generate surf for eastern shores.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small with a mix of background southerly pulses moving through and some added short period chop due to the periods of moderate southwest winds anticipated today and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov