Maui Weather Forecast for April 03, 2023
West Side
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
North Shore
Today: Cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Upcountry
Today: Mostly sunny with showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 36 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
East Maui
Today: Cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kaunakakai
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
An upper level low over the islands this morning will weaken on Tuesday. Trade winds have also returned to the region. Expect a wet trade wind weather pattern today with isolated thunderstorms for some areas into the Monday morning hours. Thunderstorms will continue over the Big Island each afternoon through Tuesday. Expect showers in this wet trade wind pattern to slowly decrease in coverage into Wednesday with showers favoring windward and mountain areas. Decreasing trade wind showers are forecast on Thursday, then increasing shower activity again from Friday into next weekend as another upper low sets up northeast of the state.
Discussion
Satellite imagery this morning shows clouds and showers continuing to develop across the region. However, both satellite and local radar imagery show these convective clouds appear less intense compared to the heavier showers and thunderstorms that developed last night. More stable trade winds have also returned at the surface. This means the upper low is likely weakening and the enhanced showers should be less intense today with shower coverage slowly decreasing into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the afternoon hours, then only popping up near the Big Island on Tuesday afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Big Island Summits was extended until this evening due to continued snow showers. These snow showers are forecast to decrease in frequency through the afternoon hours.
Upper air balloon observations from 2 AM HST this morning at Lihue and Hilo show a weak trade wind temperature inversion setting up around the 7,000 foot elevation level. This weak inversion will likely strengthen over the next 24 hours as stability increases and will allow for periods of showers to continue into Wednesday. The highest shower coverage will occur along windward and mountain areas with the highest rainfall amounts favoring the overnight to early morning hours.
Wednesday will likely start a brief transition period to a drier trade wind weather pattern as a weak upper level ridge develops over the islands. Trade wind temperature inversion heights will range from 5,000 to 7,000 feet limiting shower activity. Only brief passing showers are expected mainly over windward areas in the overnight hours. These more typical trade winds will last through Thursday night.
Trade winds continue from Friday into next weekend as an upper level low develops northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This upper low will lift the trade wind inversion heights and produce periods of showers across the state.
Aviation
A disturbance aloft will shift east of the islands early this morning, allowing conditions to gradually improve over the eastern end of the state. A return of more typical trade wind weather is expected as the day progresses, although it may be a bit more showery than normal, particularly over windward slopes and coasts.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across Maui County and the Big Island. Conditions should improve in these area later this morning. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over the entire state. Conditions should improve over the western islands later this morning, but the turbulence could linger through the day over the eastern end of the state. Finally, a mention of light icing remains in AIRMET Zulu over the eastern end of the state.
Marine
Although trade winds have returned and should hold through the week, added instability associated with an upper disturbance supports locally heavy showers and a few thunderstorms over the next day or two. The best chance of for this activity will transition to windward coasts and waters. Small Craft Advisory level winds (25 kt) will persist through the first half of the week over the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds may weaken slightly by next weekend as the ridge settles southward.
Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise through the first half of the week as the easterly trades return locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific (1036 mb high building off west coast today thru Tuesday). Guidance shows this holding into the second half of the week before easing next weekend as the trades upstream trend down.
The quiet conditions across the northern Pacific continues through the first week of April, with minimal swell anticipated. This will translate to the nearly flat conditions continuing for north and west facing shores. The exception will be for north facing shores exposed to trade wind energy wrapping in, which could generate some small surf for the typical standout locations this week, especially starting by Tuesday. For the extended, there is a potential for a short/medium period northerly swell associated with a decent sized area of north-northwest winds setting up and expanding southward from the Aleutians around the Date Line Friday through Saturday. If this materializes, this swell would arrive locally early next week and linger through midweek.
For south facing shores, guidance supports the small conditions continuing well into April with mainly background energy moving through. The European solution does depict a gale setting up south-southeast of New Zealand within our swell window later this week with seas climbing to 30 ft, which could produce a small south-southwest source by mid April.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov