Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Side

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

North Shore

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 82. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. South winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

East Maui

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 76. Light winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 72 to 78. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 56 to 70. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 67 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Deep tropical moisture surging northward over the islands ahead of an upper disturbance settling southeastward into the area will lead to southeast winds and humid conditions with increasing rainfall chances through the second half of the week. The best chance for widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will favor the western end of the state beginning this morning, then potentially over the rest of the state from later today through early Saturday. Southeast winds will linger into the weekend, with a transition back to easterly trade winds and drier conditions late Saturday through early next week.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement through the second half of the week and shows a strong pulse aloft diving southward and pinching off into an upper low west of Kauai through the day today. Deep southerly flow ahead of this approaching feature will lead to deep tropical moisture surging northward over the region. This influx of moisture, coupled with enhanced lift and added instability associated with upper height falls, will translate to an increasing likelihood for widespread heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms.
The timing and spatial coverage of this activity will be mostly influenced by the progression of the aforementioned upper low forming and moving through. Based on the current high- resolution guidance, the rainfall is expected to quickly ramp up through the first half of the day today over and around Kauai, mostly likely holding over the waters south and southwest of Kauai through daybreak today where the best low-level convergence is most pronounced. As the scenario evolves and upper height falls expand eastward, widespread rainfall chances will increase over and around Oahu by this afternoon, then the remainder of the state tonight through Friday night. Although the guidance suggest the highest rainfall totals focusing over Oahu and Kauai (where a Flood Watch exists), localized flooding can't be ruled out over the eastern end of the state tonight through Friday night. In addition to the rainfall potential, the threat of a wintry mix is anticipated over the Big Island Summits tonight through early Saturday as the cold pool aloft associated with the upper low moves through. Although this environment will support a few thunderstorms, the threat of strong to severe storms should remain on the low side due to the level of instability and limited deep flow. Another limiting factor could be the extend of the cloud coverage, which will reduce boundary layer heating/instability through this period.
A drying trend is expected over the weekend through early next week as the weakening upper low departs and upper heights rise. This will shift the deep moisture in the area westward with surface high pressure building to northeast. This pattern shift will result in a more typical easterly trade wind set up with showers returning to windward and mauka locations each day.

Aviation

An upper level trough combined with a surface trough will approach the islands today and bring unsettled conditions through tomorrow. Mid and high clouds which are currently moving in from the southwest will increase in coverage through the morning. Showers will also be increasing from west to east. MVFR conditions with embedded IFR conditions due to the heavy showers could start on Kauai around or by mid morning, and spread east to Oahu this afternoon. Scattered showers are likely for the rest of the islands. Thunderstorms will also be possible over and around Kauai and Oahu as well as the Big island slopes this afternoon.
An AIRMET Zulu for tempo light icing is in effect statewide in LYR 150-FL210 and will likely continue throughout the day.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will veer southeasterly across most waters today and may shift out of the south around Kauai tonight as a surface trough stalls about 250 nm west of the state. Thunderstorms will be possible around Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai today, and the threat will expand to all waters Friday. The surface trough will dissipate on Saturday, leading to a return of easterly trade winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions around the Big Island and Maui. Trades may strengthen early next week.
A small, short-period north-northeast swell will build today then decline Friday. Some of this swell will wrap into exposed eastern shores, but otherwise, east shore surf will be below May average as the nearby trade wind flow will be weaker than normal into Saturday. A small northwest swell is possible early next week, while returning trade winds will increase east shore surf.
A mix of small southwest and south-southeast swell may produce inconsistent surf near seasonal average through Friday. Expect south shore surf to be at summertime background heights this weekend through the middle of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch from 6 AM HST this morning through Friday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov