Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 70. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will become quite light over the weekend and early next week, with a mostly dry pattern developing. The light trade winds will deliver limited clouds and showers to windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings. Sea breezes will promote afternoon cloud development over leeward areas, also delivering just a few showers. Periods of high clouds will continue on and off through the weekend.

Discussion

Mid- and high-level clouds of varying thicknessES are over the islands this morning, moving rapidly ENE within the subtropical jet. The jet lies on the S side of an ENE-WSW oriented nearly stationary trough aloft that has an axis just N of the islands along ~25N. A low within the trough brought strong winds to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa yesterday, but winds have diminished below Wind Advisory speeds. This trough continues to destabilize the island atmosphere, with morning soundings showing a somewhat moist and unstable profile. Light to moderate trade winds at the surface are being supported by a weakening ridge well N of the islands, with clusters of showery low clouds randomly embedded. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers around Kauai and Oahu (where showers have been most active overnight), with some small heavy cores noted. Fewer showers are noted over Maui County and the Big Island. Satellite shows very little in the way of low clouds immediately upstream of the islands.
Although showers have been fairly active in portions of the state the last couple of days, a drier air mass will bring lower PWAT values from later today into the weekend. Meanwhile, a pair of low pressure systems passing N of the islands over the next several days will weaken the trade-wind-supporting ridge, while also pushing it closer to the islands. Trade winds will weaken in response, becoming quite light on Sunday and Monday.
With the light trades and drier air mass, windward areas will see limited showers after this morning, mainly during nights and mornings. Nighttime land breezes over leeward areas will lead to mostly clear nights and mornings, giving way to onshore-flowing sea breezes in the afternoons that will fuel clouds and a few showers that will linger until sunset. Models have been trending toward a lighter wind solution for early next week, with the return of breezy trades likely delayed until midweek.
The semi-permanent trough aloft is not expected to move much over the next several days, but an embedded low will move E away from the islands today, leading to some short term stabilization of the island atmosphere. Additionally, high clouds are expected to remain fairly this over most of the state today. A new low will move the trough tonight and Saturday, potentially bringing another bout of high clouds and increased instability, although diminished PWAT and winds may prevent an increase in showers. Another shortwave moving through the trough is expected on Monday, likely with similar effects.

Aviation

A typical June tradewind pattern will persist through the forecast period thanks to a surface high far northeast of the state. Moderate trades, along with slightly enhanced low level moisture, will bring scattered to numerous showers to windward locations through this morning. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity. A drier airmass will advect into the region by this afternoon and lead to decreasing shower coverage.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east section of Oahu and Kauai for tempo mountain obscuration. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate upper level turbulence statewide.

Marine

Moderate to fresh trades will hold in place today, then gradually ease into the light to moderate range this weekend as the ridge north of the state weakens. The trades will strengthen back into the moderate to fresh range early next week as the ridge lifts back northward.
North shore surf will remain flat through early next week with only background northwest swell energy moving through. A new northwest swell is expected to build Wednesday, peak at moderate levels Thursday, then begin a slow decline Friday. This will give a nice, sizable, out-of-season boost to north and west shore surf late next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain relatively steady below the seasonal average through the weekend. A slightly larger south swell is expected to arrive Sunday night, boosting south shore surf up close to seasonal levels Monday through Wednesday, with mainly background south swell energy then expected for the end of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov