Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. North winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 87 to 92. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north-northeast of the islands will keep breezy trade winds blowing through early next week. Relatively dry trade wind weather is expected to prevail, with low clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas, primarily at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1600 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, while the remnant low of former Tropical Cyclone Fernanda is located around 400 miles south- southwest of South Point. The gradient locally is producing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with mainly dry conditions in leeward locales with the exception of a few showers hugging the leeward Big Island coast. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
Strong high pressure will remain anchored to the north-northeast of the islands through Friday, with the high then weakening as it shifts southward and closer to the islands over the weekend into early next week. Overall, very little change in the overall trade winds strength is expected during the next 7 days, with breezy trade winds prevailing statewide.
As for the remaining weather details, very little change in the overall weather pattern is expected today through early next week, with pockets of moisture periodically moving through the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower occasionally reaching leeward communities.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Expect periods of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for windward/mauka areas through the early morning hours. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is now in effect for the windward areas of Oahu and Maui, but will likely be dropped by daybreak as conditions steadily improve.

Marine

Persistent high pressure far NNE of the islands will support a seasonable, fresh to strong trade wind flow into next weekend. A Small Craft Advisory will remain posted for the windier zones around Maui and the Big Island for the foreseeable future.
NDBC and PacIOOS buoys around the islands are detecting a mix of swell energy this morning, including a small, medium-period SSE swell, building long-period E swell (generated by Hurricane Hilary), a lingering small long-period SW swell, and short-period E wind waves. Even so, relatively small combined seas of 4 to 7 feet prevail, although likely larger (and unmeasured) in the windier channels between the islands. The E swell will peak near 4 feet into Wednesday, then lower Thursday, with the SSE swell peaking around 2 feet in the short term, then gradually diminishing. Otherwise, no other swell sources are noted.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov