Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 76. North winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 93. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry conditions prevail through the forecast period. Moderate trades will continue through Thursday before giving way to a land and sea breeze pattern through the weekend. Rainfall will be limited during this time.

Discussion

Virtually no change from 24 hours ago as moderate trades and high stability prevail over the islands. A weak upper jet positioned over the area has been a source of high clouds during the last couple of days which has taken the edge off of afternoon heat at times. As the jet weakens coverage of high clouds will follow, though patchy high clouds will likely still find their way into area skies at times on Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions and light winds prevail for the foreseeable future. Dry, moderate trades persist for another 36 hours or so from press time this evening. Then, from Friday onward, the large scale pattern will be will be dominated by an eastward extension of the Pacific jet. This will force rather flat but very broad deep layer ridging to build into the Central Pacific from the west resulting in a trend toward even greater stability as the weekend progresses. Meanwhile, trade winds at the surface will further weaken as they are suppressed south of the area. This leaves the islands in a rather non-descript area of the regional MSLP field characterized by weak ridging at the surface and light to variable winds. Afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes will dominate during this time. However, given the dearth of moisture and steadily increasing deep layer stability, inland shower development in the afternoon is expected to be sparse or nil.

Aviation

A weak high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will produce light to moderate trade winds through the day with localized land/sea breezes. Brief clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain areas and favor the night time and early morning hours. Overall VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence in a layer between 15kft and 25kft over Kauai and Oahu. Turbulence will likely diminish through the morning hours.

Marine

A surface high pressure system is located far northwest of the state early this morning. A surface ridge extends from this high to a point about 400 nm north of Kauai. In addition, a weak front located about 225 nm north of Kauai is moving south-southeast slowly. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected to persist across the state today. The front is expected to dissipate north of the area tonight. Another front over the north Pacific will push down from the north-northwest, and will cause the surface high and its associated ridge to move south from tonight through Friday. This will result in the trade winds gradually weakening to light to moderate speeds from late tonight through Friday. This surface ridge will likely weaken, and be in the vicinity of the islands this weekend. Therefore, expect light and variable winds in the vicinity of the western islands, while weak trade winds may linger near the eastern end of the island chain from Saturday into early next week.
The current medium-period northwest (310-320 degrees) swell will continue to gradually build through tonight. This is expected to produce small to moderate surf along exposed north and west facing shores from late tonight into Saturday. A moderate, long- period north-northwest (320-330 degrees) swell arriving Saturday is expected to maintain moderate surf along exposed north and west facing shores from this weekend into early next week. The latest model guidance continues to show forerunners from a much larger, long-period northwest swell reaching the islands next Tuesday. This swell may cause surf to reach the High Surf Warning criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands Tuesday night. Surf may also be near the High Surf Advisory criteria along west facing shores of the Big Island starting late Tuesday night. Stay tuned for future adjustments in the exact timing, heights, and potential impacts of the surf associated with this significant northwest swell.
Modest surf is expected to persist along south facing shores the rest of this week due to a series of medium- to long-period south to south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swells moving through the area. A fetch of gale force winds located southeast of New Zealand is expected to send a new, long-period south-southwest (200-210 degrees) swell toward the area that may arrive in the islands Monday. This may result in above the seasonal average surf along south facing shores early next week. Elsewhere, the weakening trade winds will result in diminishing surf along east facing shores during the next couple of days, with nearly flat conditions possible along most east facing shores by late this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov