Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 77. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 74 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 78. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 74 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 74. Northeast winds around 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 76. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold front over Kauai will push southeast through the remainder of the state late today through early Thursday. Rather wet conditions can be expected along and immediately behind the front as it moves through particularly along windward slopes and coasts. Windy conditions, along with much drier and cooler weather will develop behind the front, and continue through Friday. The air mass will moisten up slightly over the weekend into early next week, bringing an increase in trade wind showers, with breezy conditions and pleasant weather continuing.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front over Kauai remains nearly stationary early this morning, while a strong 1035 mb surface high 1200 miles northwest of the island chain is moving southeast at around 15 mph. Moderate to breezy trade winds prevail across most of the state early this morning, while over Kauai windy northeasterly trades remain in place behind the front. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over Kauai, with variably cloudy skies across the rest of the state. Radar imagery shows widespread showers moving into Kauai, with numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts of the remaining isles producing rather wet conditions as well. Main short term concern revolves around the strengthening trades as the front pushes down the island chain.
The front is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Kauai Channel this morning. A shortwave trough aloft along with the building robust high to the northwest will then drive the front southeastward through the remainder of the island chain late today and tonight, with the front pushing south of the Big Island Thursday morning. Breezy to windy northeast trades will develop behind the front, and Wind Advisories have been issued for much of the state, with the strongest winds expected where the winds are best funneled through the terrain and channels. Windy conditions will continue through Friday as the strong high north of the islands settles southward and closer to the state, with the direction shifting more east- northeast along with a slight decrease in speeds expected for Friday. The trades will ease a bit more over the weekend, but remaining generally in the breezy range as the high north of the state weakens slightly. The high is then forecast to strengthen again early next week, bringing a boost in the trade winds to breezy and locally windy levels.
As for the remaining weather details, showery rather wet conditions will continue along and within 100 miles behind the front as it moves southeastward through the island chain today and tonight, with the showery conditions lingering into Thursday morning on the Big Island. The wettest conditions associated with the front will be over windward slopes and coasts, but with the front moving through some wet weather will reach leeward communities as well. A much drier and cooler airmass will settle into the state with dewpoints dropping into the 50s for Thursday and Friday along with high temperatures struggling to reach 80 degrees. The airmass will moisten up some over the weekend into early next week, bringing an increase in trade wind showers, but the pleasant weather is expected to continue.

Aviation

A cold front near Kauai will gradually move down the island chain later today into tonight and bring increased showers, low clouds and gusty winds across portions of the state as it passes through. In addition, satellite imagery and radar have been showing low clouds and showers embedded in the moderate trades ahead of the front streaming across the rest of the island chain overnight. This activity will bring periods of MVFR conditions or lower for portions of the state today and tonight.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai and windward portions of Oahu, Molokai and Maui this morning. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through mid to late morning, but may need to be extended beyond that. Additionally, AIRMET Tango is in effect across the state for low- level turbulence downwind of island terrain as surface winds increase.

Marine

Strong building high pressure far northwest of the state will push a cold front located near Kauai southeast through the island chain this week. Increasing strong to locally gale force winds will fill in behind the front, along with increasing seas and swells generated from the front's parent low. The cold front will bring a period of showers as it continues to move through Oahu today, Maui County tonight and the Big Island on Thursday, with the strongest winds immediately following its passage.
Frequent gusts to gale force winds are expected over waters west of Kauai through tonight, and a Gale Warning is in effect. As the front continues to move southeast, a Gale Warning has been posted for select waters around Maui County and the Big Island starting this evening through Thursday. Also, the increasing seas and swells have prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all other waters, as well as a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for most north and west facing shores. Large mixed seas associated with the front has begun to fill in across Kauai and Oahu that will continue to build and fill in across the eastern waters tonight. These headlines will likely be required into the weekend, although surf along west facing shores will likely drop below HSA- level heights by Thursday. Into the weekend, the high will pass north of the islands as the near- gale winds are expected to veer to the east and potentially ease slightly.
A long-period northwest swell has begun to fill in with long period forerunners impacting the nearshore PacIOOS Buoys, producing high surf along exposed north and west facing shores through today. Mixed swell with increasing shorter- period north to northeast wind waves, will lead to choppy surf along most windward shores. East facing shores look to stay just below HSA criteria due to the predominant northerly direction, although northerly exposed shorelines may still see some wrap. The northwest swell will become increasingly northerly this evening, with another pulse of mixed- period north to northeast swell arriving Thursday night and Friday leading to another round of high surf along north facing shores. This swell will gradually lower over the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai,
Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Thursday for Oahu,
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Thursday for Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov