Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. South winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 67. South winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 81. Light winds.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Very windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southwest winds 15 to 45 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. West winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 75. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 68 to 75. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 53 to 65. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weakening front will stall out and dissipate over the eastern end of the state today. Breezy conditions along with some unsettled weather will continue this morning along and in advance of the front, with improving conditions expected this afternoon. Weak high pressure building over the island chain tonight will bring a drying trend. Mostly dry weather will then persist Thursday through early next week, as winds gradually pick up out of the south and southwest ahead of another slowly approaching cold front.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front has cleared Oahu, Molokai and Lanai overnight, and now resides over Maui in a weakening state as it slows its eastward progression. Winds have shifted west-southwest and eased to moderate speeds behind the front, while breezy southerly winds continue out ahead of it. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions across much of Maui County as well as portions of Kauai and the Big Island, with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Radar imagery shows numerous showers over Maui and approaching the Big Island, with isolated shower coverage elsewhere. Main short term focus is on timing the improving conditions into the area.
The front will continue move eastward this morning, then stall out and dissipate over the eastern islands later today. Unsettled weather will continue along and ahead of the front, with conditions improving quickly behind it from west to east. The threat for additional heavy rainfall has diminished during the last hour over Maui, therefore the Flood Watch has been cancelled. The High Wind Warning for the High Elevation summits of Maui and the Big Island remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.
Much quieter weather will have built over the island chain by this evening, as ridging surface and aloft overspreads the Aloha state easing winds to light levels. Shower activity should have ended across most of the state by early this evening, with a few light lingering showers over Maui and the Big Island. A few showers may continue over windward Big Island into Thursday, with mostly dry conditions then expected across the entire state Friday through Sunday as the winds gradually shift southerly at light to moderate levels. Increasing southerly flow in advance of the next cold front should bring an increase in showers back to the islands early next week.

Aviation

A front over Maui county will begin to stall out and dissipate today. Breezy southwesterly flow ahead of this feature may bring moderate turbulence below 9000 feet to areas north and east of the higher terrain on Maui, Lanai, and the Big Island. See AIRMET TANGO below for details.
Lines of prefrontal showers over and east of Maui county will slowly move eastward over the next several hours and reach western portions of the Big Island by day break. Expect periods of MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibility associated with this activity. Some airports in Maui County have already reported ceilings below 1000 ft AGL and visibility less than 3SM with some of the more robust rain bands. See AIRMET SIERRA below for details.
As fronts weakens and dissipates today, both shower coverage and winds are expected to slowly wane.
AIRMET SIERRA for MVFR remains in effect for Molokai above 2000 feet for tempo mountain obscuration due to clouds and showers. AIRMET SIERRA for IFR conditions also remains in effect for Lanai and Maui for tempo ceilings below 1000 feet AGL and visibility below 3SM due to clouds and showers. Conditions should improve as the day progresses.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect over and north through east sections of Maui and Big Island mountains for tempo moderate turbulence due to breezy southwesterly flow. Conditions should improve as the day progresses.

Marine

A cold front will weaken near Maui County and the Big Island today creating a weakening trend for the fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front. Fresh westerlies have filled in behind the front. The Small Craft Advisory has been scaled back a bit due to the weakening wind trend how ever still remains for most areas due to high seas. A weak ridge will build over the state Thursday, providing a brief period of light and variable winds. Another front will pass north of the state Friday through the weekend, generating gentle to moderate south to southwest winds.
Large and rough seas will persist into Thursday. The long period north to north- northwest (340-360 degree) swell that generated a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for north facing shores will continue to subside into Thursday. A west- northwest (300-310 deg) swell will build today, on already elevated seas, and produce at surf well above the HSA level across most north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui, as well as west facing shores of the Big Island, through Thursday. A HSA is now in effect for north facing shores, except the Big Island and for select west facing shores. For the upcoming weekend, a large, long period west- northwest (300 deg) swell will build on Saturday and produce surf around the warning level Saturday night into Sunday.
Along east facing shores, surf will remain small due to the lack of trades locally and upstream of the state. Areas exposed to the the north swell wrap will trend down today as the north swell fades. Surf along south facing shores will also trend down through the rest of the week as southwesterly wind waves and a small, long period south swell fades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kona, Kohala, Molokai West.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Haleakala Summit, Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu Leeward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov